When Dark vader Ginszberg retires next year it will virtually be a split senate. That is when they really need to fight. That would tip the scales on the court if we could get a true “moderate”.
If I were Ginsburg, I’ll retire now. Why wait? Especially when Republicans are likely to have the numbers to “bork’’ a leftist next year.
I’m surprised Ginsburg hasn’t retired yet. She’s taking a big chance that the GOP doesn’t retake the Senate or build up a strong fillibuster proof caucus. Although, replacing Ginsburg won’t really change anything in terms of the ideology of the court. But, if the GOP can stall and win in 2012, that would be a huge deal. Even if they stalled and kept the Court at 8 for a while it would be a huge deal. She should have retired already. Just as Scalia should have retired under W in 2005 when we could have put a solid 45 yr oold conservative on the bench. Instead we have a 73 yr old Nino who we can only pray outlasts Obama.
Kagan won’t really change things, though. She can’t be more liberal than Stevens. She doesn’t strike me as a real intellectual leader or anyone with an ambitious agenda. She’ll be a solid liberal vote, but nothing more. She won’t have some new theory that will change everything.
I doubt she’ll be able to poach Kennedy. O’Connor had more success cause she was relatively the same age and she was from the West like Kennedy, they were both Reagan appointees, and she was able to get her hooks in early. Kagan is new yorker who is 25 yrs younger than Kennedy, and now he’s been on the bench for 25 yrs. He’s set in his ways. And Roberts has had a 5 yr head start on him. In any event, Kennedy never switches his mind on anything. Once he decides that’s it.
He’s always been against Aff Action, against campaign finance laws, against late term abortion, against the death penalty for kids and other special groups, against prayer in schools, etc... Whatever position he’s taken, he’ll stick with it.
I see Kagan as another Sotomayor, a reliable liberal vote, but nothing more. The liberal don’t really have leader now that Stevens is gone. Kagan and Soto are way too new. Ginsburg has never been a leader, same with Breyer.
The 2012 election will be the key. If we win that, we likely get to replace Kennedy and Scalia(and mayeb Ginsburg or Breyer)and we can ensure that conservatives have a rock solid majority for a generation. If Obama gets re-elected...we need to find the best doctors in the world and attach them to Scalia and Kennedy 24/7.