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To: Polybius

That’s all well and good, if you have a bottomless treasury. But as things stand now, the US will have to cancel Social Security, Obamacare, Medicare and Medicaid, and slash Defense by a good 50%.

Russia ruined its navy after the collapse of the Soviet Union by trying to keep too many ships afloat. It ended up with rusting fleets incapable of service. The US could easily get caught in that trap, so the navy needs a graduated plan now, of what it will do when economic push turns to shove.

It could even be put into blunt terms. In FY 2009, the USN Budget was $150B. Plan ‘A’ is if their budget is reduced to $140B. Plan ‘B’ is if it is reduced to $130B. It probably ends up around Plan ‘J’, if the Navy only gets $50B in FY 2012, and Plan ‘K’, only $40B in 2013.

It is that bad. And the Navy will probably do a lot better than the Air Force or Army.

There will likely be a massive contraction of US military forces, from the about 100 countries they are now stationed, to a critical 4 or 5 locations.

So the USN can forget about new aircraft carriers, and its new combat ships will be cheap and cheerful. But they will be doing most of the work, as the high quality ships will be too valuable to deploy, too expensive to operate and maintain, and too important to be put in harms’ way, unless they know they are headed into a fight.

No more routine patrols. No more petty missions. If a US aircraft carrier fleet shows up, something is going to get the pluperfect snot blown out of it.


59 posted on 05/08/2010 8:57:56 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
That’s all well and good, if you have a bottomless treasury. But as things stand now, the US will have to cancel Social Security, Obamacare, Medicare and Medicaid, and slash Defense by a good 50%.

Yep.

When you have to choose between Welfare Benefits and National Survival, you should choose Welfare Benefits every time.

Russia ruined its navy after the collapse of the Soviet Union by trying to keep too many ships afloat. It ended up with rusting fleets incapable of service.

Russia has the luxury of not NEEDING a Navy for its national survival. In spite of the collapse of the Russian Navy, the U.S. has no intention of posing any threat to Russian maritime traffic and Russia is so self-sufficient in oil that it actually EXPORTS the stuff.

The U.S. on the other hand, is dependent on open sea lanes for national survival.

Without open sea lanes, the imported U.S oil supply comes to a halt and so does America.

The first Pacific War over the issue of foreign oil supplies was fought between Japan and the U.S. between 1941 and 1945. (Japan was desperate for imported oil)

The second Pacific War over foreign oil supplies will be between China and the U.S. sometime in the unpredictable future. (Both the U.S. and China will be desperate for imported oil)

China’s 2009 Crude Oil Imports Advance to Record ..... China, the world’s second-largest energy consumer, increased crude oil purchases to a record last year to meet rising demand ... Crude oil imports reached 203.8 million metric tons last year, or 4.1 million barrels a day

The deciding factor of what you build or do not build has to be what the Chinese are building for that future conflict.

China military build-up seems U.S.-focused: Mullen

Otherwise, when the balloon goes up, China will win, the U.S. will lose, and the U.S. will then become a nuclear-armed economic pigmy, too dangerous to invade, which, however, China can starve at its leisure as the Chines Navy will control the world's sea lanes.

And, no, Social Security, Obamacare, Medicare and Medicaid will no longer exist.

61 posted on 05/08/2010 10:08:12 AM PDT by Polybius
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