A Greek domino effect in Europe could have unfathomable global consequences. Germany would inevitably be sucked in, despite its own brilliant economic performance and financial discipline. From this point of view, Germany should intervene in Greece to build some kind of dam for itself.
Still, there is a flip side of the coin. If Germany intervenes in Greece, it signals that any undisciplined country in Europe can hope for a free German ride, and thus that country would be encouraged to carry on its peccadilloes or large sins totally unrestrained - nanny-Berlin will always be there to save its skin. This would also inevitably bring down Germany, as the load of sins of others would eventually grow too big for Berlin to shoulder.
These alternatives entail different courses of actions for Germany. Germany could decide that Greece is its problem, and thus push for a European political union that eventually would de facto politically take over Greece and the rest of Europe. Berlin, aided by other disciplined European countries, could administratively “invade” sinful countries and bring about a European economic discipline that would eventually save the continent.
The idea of kicking the Greeks out of the euro is the cleanest and clearest - it is that of the school principal booting out the rowdy kid. But it is also an admission of defeat: the principal says, “I can’t educate that kid,” and thus he admits that his teaching (administrative in this case) methods are not working or they are no good. It would be an utter defeat of the idea of greater unity in Europe, something that has grown to be fundamental in European cultural consciousness and perceptions in the past 70 years, after the huge massacres of the two world wars.
It would be an historic u-turn; it could move Europe back to the times of unending wars and confrontations, and prove that decade-long conflicts in Yugoslavia were not minor law-and-order episodes, like some kind of mafia wars, but exposed once again the deep undying seed of blood in the European soul. Then, Germany, although it would gain time, would be inevitably sucked in.
This leaves us with the first option, the one that at first sight is the most despicable, as it would imply in fact a German takeover of Europe, something that the rest of Europe had successfully managed to avoid through over a century of fights. It is very complicated, and it is very risky. It causes great qualms and suspicion all over Europe - but especially in the United Kingdom and France (which managed to avoid two expansions at great cost), and also in Russia and the US, as certainly a new German Europe would change the outline of the world. Most importantly, it runs against Germans’ own fear of themselves. But other options, if carefully gauged, are even scarier. Those options might mean wars and destruction, and the end of hard-achieved and widespread continental welfare.
My preference is (author’s preference that is), as Dante wished in the 13th century, for the German emperor to take over, and thus for peace and welfare in Europe.
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German Empire? No.
British Empire? Yes — if it is actual British people running the show.
How about Austria is absorbed into Germany and the Hapsburgs are brought back as Holy Roman Emperor, hee hee. I mean Vienna was a much more stylish Imperial capital then Berlin, hee hee.
Interesting article. The question I’ve been pondering is, “So what happens when Germany forecloses on Greece?”
If we don’t get government spending under control soon, then we will become Greece - and China will be our Germany. Either spend less, or spend on F-22’s...
In hell the Germans are the police, the French are the engineers and the British are the cooks.
Whatever you do, don’t make Germany angry.
You won’t like Germany when it’s angry.
But economically it isn't really the same thing at all. Under the new model those who have treasuries may be cheerfully plundered by those who have spent theirs (watch it happen with Germany and Greece); under the old, the former were inclined to keep their treasuries at bayonet point. For some reason the new system is generally regarded as more humane than the old. Why isn't entirely obvious.
But I'm afraid we have already seen the inevitable fate of a ruling class unwilling to spill blood to keep its largesse. It loses it. And so, if the new aristos of Brussels intend to maintain a discredited ruling class model on top of a discredited socialistic economic model, we cannot hope for a great deal of stability.
That won't keep the Democrats from trying it in the United States, though. It is good to be king.