As I’ve been reading of these “estimates” by the government of how much oil is escaping from the well in BPD, I’m moved to ask this question of someone with your experience:
Does it look to you like they’re reading the estimates/measurements of previous on-land blow-outs and gushers and simply applying those numbers here as a WAG of how much oil “could” come out of a blowout?
Because I’ve not read anywhere where someone (or anyone) has tried to make an actual, you know, *measurement* of the volume of oil escaping the well. The numbers seem to be inflated to either CYA or attract attention to me.
And let’s assume (I’m NOT saying the bureaucrats are correct, just posing a hypothetical) that these estimates of > 20K BPD oil are correct - would a blowout like this indicate a good find of oil? ie, some of the on-land blowouts we’ve had were precursors to long-lived, highly productive oilfields... could that be the case here?
Where have you seen >20k BPD?
The coast guard and MMS both are using 5k BPD.