Posted on 05/04/2010 3:20:15 AM PDT by iowamark
With the Iowa Republican Primary just five weeks away, former GOP Governor Terry Branstad still attracts much more support than either of his party rivals in the race against current Democratic Governor Chet Culver.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Branstad with 53% support from likely Iowa voters to Culver's 38%. That’s a two-point increase in support for Culver since March and his highest level of support against Branstad since Rasmussen Reports began polling voters about the gubernatorial race last September. But only three percent (3%) of voters remain undecided, while six percent (6%) prefer another candidate.
The gap between Culver and each of the other two GOP hopefuls is much narrower. Against businessman and educator Bob Vander Plaats, Culver attracts 41% support to Vander Plaats' 45%. They were even closer a month ago, though, when Vander Plaats led 42% to 40%. Nine percent (9%) currently prefer some other candidate given the match-up, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
State Representative Rod Roberts, a latecomer to the race, earns 41% to Culver’s 43%. The men were similarly positioned in the previous survey. Nine percent (9%) favor another candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
Republicans will pick their nominee on June 8.
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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on April 29, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology
Republican Senator Charles Grassley continues to enjoy more than 50% support in match-ups with three potential Democratic challengers.
Branstad, who served as governor from 1983 to 1999, has been president of Des Moines University in recent years. He is viewed very favorably by 29% and very unfavorably by 21%.
Seven percent (7%) have a very favorable opinion of Roberts, while 10% view him very unfavorably.
Vander Plaats is viewed very favorably by 12% and very unfavorably by 20%.
For Culver, very favorables are 14%, but very unfavorables are 35%.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
Little changed from the previous survey are the 43% who approve of the job Culver is doing as governor and the 56% who disapprove. This includes 15% who Strongly Approve and 32% who Strongly Disapprove.
Fifty-seven percent of Iowa homeowners believe that the value of their home is worth more than their mortgage, close to the national percentage who say so. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they owe more on the mortgage than their home is worth.
Fifty-six percent (56%) of likely voters in Iowa favor a welcoming immigration policy that keeps out only “national security threats, criminals and those who would come here to live off our welfare system.” Twenty-four percent (24%) disagree.
Fifty-six percent (56%) favor legislation like the law just adopted in Arizona that would authorize local police to check the immigration status of those whom they suspect of being in the country illegally. This compares to 60% nationally.
But 54% are at least somewhat concerned that “efforts to identify and deport illegal immigrants will also end up violating the civil rights of some U.S. citizens.”
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Iowa during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Obama leading McCain by eight, 52% to 44%. Obama won by nine, 54% to 45%. Other Iowa polling that year showed Senator Tom Harkin defeating Christopher Reed 57% to 41%. Harkin won 63% to 37%. In the 2006 race for Governor of Iowa, Rasmussen polling showed Chet Culver leading Jim Nussle 49% to 45%. Culver won 54% to 44%. In 2004, the final Rasmussen Reports poll in Iowa showed George W. Bush and John Kerry tied at 48%. The final numbers were Bush 50%, Kerry 49%.
November will devastate the Democrats. They will pay for becoming the Communists USA.
Looks like Rasmussen underestimated the Dem turnout last election. Of course, it’s hard to poll out-of-state college students, dead people and illegal immigrants.
In 2006-2008 all of the undecideds broke Democrat. Hopefully the tables have turned on that.
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