Posted on 05/02/2010 10:55:48 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
EXCLUSIVE: By Vincent Moss 2/05/2010
Nick Clegg's bubble has burst with the Lib Dems plunging back into third place in our exclusive poll today.
Labour has overtaken the Lib Dems, who have dropped four points since our poll last weekend.
The ComRes survey shows the Tories have stretched their lead by four points to 38 per cent. Labour remain unchanged on 28 per cent. The Lib Dems have had a four point drop to 25 per cent.
The survey also reveals neither Brown's disastrous meeting with "bigoted woman" Gillian Duffy or the final TV debate between Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Mr Clegg have had any real impact.
Asked if they agreed with the statement that they had changed their mind about who to vote for because of the PM's remark, an overwhelming 85 per cent said they had not.
And 75 per cent said the TV contests had not changed their minds. Only 19 per cent said the debates had affected how they would vote.
Our survey would leave Britain facing a hung Parliament with the Tories 11 seats short of a majority. If the results were repeated on Thursday, the Tories would have 315 seats, Labour 236 and the Lib Dems 69. Labour strategists were delighted by the first signs that Mr Clegg's bandwagon is failing. Just 47 per cent now say the Lib Dem leader should get a key role in the next Government against 64 per cent a fortnight ago. ComRes chairman Andrew Hawkins said: "Cleggmania isn't over, but it's looking a lot weaker. It might have had its day."
(Excerpt) Read more at mirror.co.uk ...
If they are the largest party and 11 seats short of a majority, they can still form a minority government right?
The governments across the pond are odd birds. Conservatives are centrist, liberals are ultra-progressives. Is there such a thing as a conservative as we consider it conservatism?
I dunno
The Tories got to break 40 %..Geez, what the heck is wrong with the British? Isnt over a dozen years of Labor mismanagement enough?
They can form a government by persuading 11 MP’s from other parties to join them, or forming a coalition with the Liberals or any other parties, as long as they end up with enough seats to have a majority in parliament. The trouble of course is that the Liberals are as loony left as they come. But hey, stranger coalitions have been formed before, and sometimes pragmatism takes precedence over ideology.
Remember Einstein’s quote: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.”
Reminds me of American Idol.
If these figures are correct, then they’re liable to end up even worse than before. Neither party has enough on its own, so one or the other will have to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Most likely that will be Labour, which is a lot closer to the Lib Dems than the Tories. Of course, it all depends on who offers the most the junior coalition partner, including cabinet positions. But Labour won’t have to hold its nose as hard as the Tories. It just means that not as many as now will get cabinet positions.
And, unfortunately, the Tories are wimps anyway, unlikely to be more than placeholders until the left recuperates.
Yep. Based on that seat calculation (and take those with a grain of salt because it's just a rough estimate), Labour + the Lib Dems would still be less than the Tories, which means the two couldn't gang up on Cameron to keep Labour in power. In such a scenario, Cameron would almost certainly get to form the new government.
If they can't find anyone they want to help them out in a coalition, they could simply go it alone. Chances are, however, such a minority government would not last very long (the last hung parliament they had over in the UK didn't even last 8 months). It all depends how close to 326 the Conservatives are on Friday morning. Then again, Stephen Harper in Canada has yet to win a majority and those hung parliaments have lasted a few years at a time.
In some countries, their right is to the left of our Democrats.
Labour under Gordon Brown has been a disaster yes. Trouble is, the Conservatives are not much of conservatives in anything either. It's kinda hard to chose the Conservatives when they are just Labour Lite.
It's kinda like the choices we had in 2008, when Juan McCain was even more pro amnesty than 0bama, was every bit against offshore drilling and ANWR drilling as 0bama(McCain only pretended to change his mind on offshore drilling just to gain votes), was every bit as much for cap and trade as 0bama, was every bit as much for shutting down Guantanamo as 0bama, was every bit for giving Geneva Convention rights to Guantanamo terrorists as 0bama, etc etc.
In effect, conservatives had very little reason to vote for McCain in 2008, apart from Sarah Palin. Same thing with conservatives in the UK now as far as the Conservative Party is concerned. They will probably just hold their noses and vote for the Conservative Party anyways.
No, 40% is a media myth. 40% would all but guarantee a Tory majority but it is not required. If Labour are low enough in the polls like they are now, the Tories may be able to get a majority on as low as 36% of the vote. Other factors such as differential turnout and GOTV will be crucial.
No.
If this poll is correct (a big if since The Mirror is left wing rag), then this will be the seats by party:
Conservative Party: 315 seats,
Labour 236
Lib Dems 69.
Labour plus Lib Dems = 305 Seats
Conservative Party = 315 Seats
Labour couldn't form a government even if they joined up with the Lib Dems (they will be short by 21 seats).
The Conservatives are the only party that can form the next government.
Well, yeah, but they are labeled right-wing extremists - A.K.A. Nazi’s - by the Euro-media, so most people stay away.
They have early voting there too, though, so a large % of the electorate was voting when the LibDems were polling much higher. They’ll probably come second in terms of votes, but third in terms of seats.
It sounds like the small parties, such as the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru (Welsh) with 11 seats (old count - may increase) between them now get to have their demands listened to.
They might be easy for an almost majority govt. to “buy off”...:^)
“If they are the largest party and 11 seats short of a majority, they can still form a minority government right?”
Yes. In Canada, we currently have a minority Conservative government & we have the same system of government as Britain (Constitutional Monarchy).
There isn’t any requirement for a coalition involving other parties. The only requirement is to be able to demonstrate to Her Majesty (or her local representative) that your party enjoys the confidence of Parliament. If you can show that you likely have support to get a budget passed, you’re in. That’s why all budget votes (amongst others) are considered “confidence votes”. If your budget gets defeated, you’ve lost the confidence of Parliament & another trip to see Her Majesty is in order.
There are more than three parties in Parliament.There's the SNP (leftist),Plaid Cymru (leftist) and several others.It could well be true that the Tories are most likely to form the next government but,depending on the actual vote,it's not a certainty.
But my understanding is that they're both left wing parties.If that's true then it seems they'd feel more at home with Labour.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.