He will probably get a fine, probation and an Obama pardon in December 2012. His legal advice probably was to roll the dice because if convicted he could depend on a pardon before he ever had to apply for anything serious. That does not sound like such bad advice afterall, does it?
That might depend on the length of the sentence. AFAIK, Obama has no personal or professional connection to Kernell. Unless Kernell receives a very long sentence, a pardon would be interpreted by the electorate as an endorsement of the felony. It would be a political liability for Obama & the Dems. The only benefit would be to Kernell personally, and he does not matter.
On the other hand, if Kernell get's a very long sentence, then Obama might want to use that as a political issue. After all, he couldn't stand by and let a heartless Republican judge ruin this poor child's life, now could he?
We'll see.