Scuds for Hizbollah? The regional balance is at stake

The National ^ | April 20, 2010 | Emile Hokayem

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The tenuous, perhaps complacent, sense of quiet is unravelling in the Levant. For the past two weeks, reports that Syria has delivered Scud missiles to Hizbollah, or at least is ready to deploy them across the Lebanese border, have reminded everyone in the area that amid the hubris, a devastating war is only one miscalculation away.

Hizbollah’s possession of such a strategic capability would change the game because it would allow it to target the entirety of Israel from its northernmost bases. The real benefit would be psychological, because Israeli confidence would undoubtedly be shaken if the entire country became vulnerable. How much the missiles would improve Hizbollah’s capability in a war is questionable. Iraq launched Scuds armed with conventional warheads against Israel and Saudi Arabia during the 1991 Gulf War, but the destruction was limited.

For Syria, it would help redress a humiliating imbalance that has allowed Israel to ignore Syria when it wishes. For decades, Damascus has been struggling to achieve strategic parity, a quixotic goal made impossible by the demise of its Soviet patron.