The Alewite version of Islam has some things in common with Persian Shiism. A few years back some major Iranian religious authorities patched things up with the Alewites and said they were not apostates. Alewites have a thing for Mary (mother of Jesus) as well as Muhammad
Anyone who wants to discuss Syria, or thinks he has a right to make policies dealing with Syria, must find out about, must hold in the forefront of his brain, the history and role of the Alawites, their strengths (including their self-interested protection of Christians) and also their great vulnerabilities (including the fact that their syncretistic worship of Mary means that Sunni Arabs do not regard them as real Muslims, and that is the touchiest of subjects, the one that had the Alawites desperate for an Iranian fatwa a few years ago that appeared to give them full-fledged Muslim status, and helps explain the eagerness of the Alawite regime to curry favor with Muslims by 1) allowing Sunni Arabs to go off to Iraq to fight the Infidels 2) allowing Iran to trans-ship through Syria aid to Hezbollah 3) maintaining an unyielding stance toward Israel, which allows the Alawites to use their supposed "Arab" ethnic identity (decades ago more people in the country identified themselves "Syrians" just as in Egypt, 40-50-60 years ago, "Egyptian" rather than "Arab" was the favored identity -- those days can be made to come again) to make up for their unorthodox, not-quite-sufficient brand of Islam, or near-Islam, or quasi-Islam. This weakness can be ruthlessly exploited by the West -- not least by making the theme of the Alawites "non-Islamic" nature a constant source of discussion, thereby bringing the topic embarrassingly up. We have the power to make it hot for them, and if the Sunni Arabs ever come to power, they will, as Armenian friends of mine from Haleb have noted, promptly attack the Alawite villages, and those Alawite military officers will be helpless to protect their own famlilies.
Every Alawite house has a picture of Mary.
I can’t predict any interactions among Alewites, Sunnis, and Shiites since I don’t know much about any of them.... but simply as a matter of general political psychology, I doubt that any outside efforts to make Syrian Alewites feel more insecure and more humiliated in the Muslim world is going to make them more amenable to moderation.
Just as Hitler often felt driven to prove he was more “German” (as an Austrian originally) than most Germans, and as Stalin felt driven to prove his “Russian” character (even though he was from Georgia), Assad and his ilk may well respond to insecurity about their identity as Muslims by being more extremist and violent, not less so.