If you look at the trend lines, "strongly disapprove" is steady (and steadily growing long term). The "strongly approves" are all over the place, indicating their support is fickle. Bodes well for November.
>> The “strongly approves” are all over the place, indicating their support is fickle. Bodes well for November. <<
I hope your diagnosis is right, but put me in the skeptical camp for the time being.
I just ran the standard deviations for both the “strongly approve” and the “strongly disapprove” series, starting with the passage of the health takeover bill on March 21. Here are the statistics:
Standard deviation of the “strongly approves” = 1.77%
Standard deviation of the “strongly DISapproves” = 1.10%
In other words, you’re correct that the “strongly approve” number is less stable than the “srongly disapprove” number. But is there enough difference to be significant? Maybe by November. But I can’t read the current numbers as showing a “fatal fickleness” among supporters of His Ø-ness.
On the other hand, the current numbers do give us a lot to be optimistic about. If we take this morning’s Rasmussen numbers at face value and assume an election were held today, then my electoral turnout model suggests a generic opponent opponent could beat the Øne by a margin of 56 to 44.
(The above calculation assumes the “strongly approves” and “strongly disapproves” would both turn out at a rate of 85%, while the “somewhats” on both sides would turn out at a rate of 60%.)