Keep in mind that the "one child policy" is often not adhered to in the Chinese countryside, where it is common to have many "off the books" children. Some estimates suggest that the figures we have for China's population are actually 10-20% too low.
Also, I would call into question some of your other assertions. China's is not necessarily "one of the strongest economies on the planet." It is, in fact, quite fragile, and dependent upon foreign exports and an influx of foreign capital to take advantage of...drum roll please...it's large supply of cheap, expendable labour. Indigenous Chinese capital development has been very slow in coming, outside of a few "showcase" cities like Shanghai.
The Chinese economic picture is a lot like that of the Soviet Union in the 1930-1950s. Back then, informed opinion was convinced that the Soviets were the wave of the future since, hey, their economy was growing 10% a year. Of course, it really all boiled down to a matter of perspective - when you start with little, you don't have to do all that much to rack up some impressive numbers. Stalin's program of enforced industrialisation actually was successful in creating a large-scale industrial base where one had not previously existed. The Soviets saw huge numbers because they were basically taking what England and the USA had done over the course of a hundred years, and squeezing it into 30.
That's what China has been doing. They've been rapidly industrialising, so their numbers look good on paper. However, they're enduring all the same issues of environmental devastation, rapid urban influx of a previously rural population, and social instabilities that come with enforced industrialisation over a short period of time. The Soviets dealt with troublemakers by shooting them, thereby suppressing the tendencies in their situation. The Chinese, despite their reputation, don't seem to do that quite so much, and therefore have had more openly manifested social strife, despite the efforts of the state media to ignore it.
China's situation is delicate, and I am not at all convinced that China is destined to be the next superpower, nor am I convinced that the PRC is as monolithically stable as it is reputed. I'm not saying it'll fall apart into another Warring States-type period, but i would expect trends towards local autonomy to accelerate as the central government fails to deal with the many local grievances against the Party that continue to crop up.
FWIW, my money would be on India as the next Asian colossus. It has a huge population, cheap labour pool, rapid industrialisation,and growing military power as well. It also has something China does not - a reasonably free, consensual government that allows citizens to "blow off steam" via the electoral process, and which more readily allows for the exercise of personal liberties that are necessary for true entrepreneurialism and the emergence of a broad-based middle class that are necessary for a truly sound economy.
Plus there is a lot of corruption in China as well. They also have problems with their Muslims as well.
There is no question that China's population growth slowed sharply after the government took steps to get couples to have fewer children, even if some couples managed to secretly have children “off the books” or not. That is not even an issue.
“Also, I would call into question some of your other assertions. China's is not necessarily “one of the strongest economies on the planet.” It is, in fact, quite fragile, and dependent upon foreign exports and an influx of foreign capital to take advantage of”
That's like saying America depends on cheap imports from China to keep our consumer spending going, and our inflation at a very low rate for the past decade. It works both ways.
China's economy is no more “fragile” than ours. We owe close to $13 Trillion, a lot of it to foreign countries and social security and Medicare currently have liabilities of over $70 Trillion.
Look at the kind of voodoo economy being practiced by Tim Geithner right now. He just keeps printing money, our entire Federal budget(and 0bamcare) is full of smoke and mirrors, and some of the financial tricks they are using, would land any private businessman whotpracticed such chicanery in jail for the rest of his natural life! We are a good one to talk.
Not even close. Russia was never a great exporting country like China is. Russia never dominated the imports of most consumer goods in America like China has.
They are not even on the same planet.
“Back then, informed opinion was convinced that the Soviets were the wave of the future since, hey, their economy was growing 10% a year”
Russia used to boast about “burying America” (Khrushchev ) from military power. No one that I know thought Russia was going to overtake America economically. We hardly ever imported anything from Russia. Consumer goods in Russia were always in short supply because they put their best brains and factories to work on the latest tanks and fighter aircraft. Remember that famous kicthen "debate" between Nixon and Khrushchev ?
“Stalin's program of enforced industrialisation actually was successful in creating a large-scale industrial base where one had not previously existed. “
Correction: Stalin;s forced collectivization ruined Russian agriculture. Remember how the Soviets used to import wheat from America so they wouldn't starve during the days of Leonid Brezhnev? Stalin's forced collectivization increased Russian industrial output for WAR materiel, not for normal everyday consumers goods like cars or even houses, which continued to be in short supply in Russia long after Stalin was gone, right into the time of Gorbachev.