“Let’s suppose the US wants Israel to attack Iran but wants to shield itself from any blame due to its close ties to Israel.”
The latter part of your speculation is pretty much a given. The weenie in the WH deflects blame/criticism all the time by pointing his fingers at others. Why would any sensible person expect him to man up and suddenly take responsibility for the bold actions sometimes required to face down international thugs?
The only residual question is whether he wants Israel to take action. Hard to say, but it’s a fair bet they wouldn’t want this strike occurring just before the election, since that might well remind voters of the failure in U.S. leadership that forced Israel to take action.
I think what’s new in this story is the explicit tie to the November elections. That in essence is a veiled threat to Obama to support the Israeli action behind the scenes or else be left out of the decision-making when it comes to timing. It’s going to be a little dicey planning this operation if the Israelis essentially have no idea whether to expect to be given unimpeded flyover rights across Iraq. It’s not like they get a do-over if they guess wrong about this.
I don’t think they’ll get flyover rights. I think it will be cruise missiles from the Persian Gulf off an Israeli naval vessel.