The Argentinans well could have won the 1982 war. Some extremely bad upper level leadership.
There were a lot of minor things that had huge impacts - the day the Argentianian carrier was attempting a strike on the British task force, there wasn’t enough wind for their Skyhawks to take off (incredibly rare in the South Atlantic for this to happen.)
An Argentinian sub stalked the two British carriers, and had several good shots, while never being detected. However, a crewman had attempted to clean the contacts of two wires in their fire control system, and switched them when he replaced them; this caused all the torpedoes they fired to go out of control after being fired.
And perhaps most importantly the Argentinian bombs were being dropped at such low altitudes that they weren’t detonating; had all Argentinian bombs that hit ships detonated, the losses probably would have been severe enough to cripple the invasion force.
Would have helped if the Argentian Air Force had targeted the transports more instead of warships on their bomb runs.
However, since 1982, while the British military obviously has shrunk and suffered severe budget cuts, the Argentinian military and navy have weakened EVEN MORE.
Argentinians have no chance now.
It is the story of war, plain and simple.
The unexpected coupled with the simple mistake or misjudgment snowballs to alter the course of a battle.
Washington evacuating the Continental forces to Manhattan, saved from being annihilated by a thick fog bank that concealed them from both the British Army and the British fleet. A trick of the climate.
The US Marines landing on Tarawa, get stuck on the reef because of a freakish variation in the predicted tide patterns.
And so on.
Not sure if you ever read Dr. Jack Wheeler’s insights, but he had a good story on this situation of 1982:
“You may have heard that, in the time honored tradition of tyrants in trouble ramping up a jingoistic war, Argentina’s Cristina Kirchner (”Old Plastic Face”) has picked a fight with the Brits over the Falkland Islands. And that, in the liberal tradition of screwing America’s friends and appeasing her enemies, Zero has refused to support British sovereignty over the Falklands - which has rightfully enraged the British press.
In 1982, Ronald Reagan was president, Alexander Haig was Secretary of State, Jeane Kirkpatrick was US Ambassador to the UN, Margaret Thatcher was British Prime Minister, and the military dictatorship in Argentina invaded and occupied the Falkland Islands.
Thatcher thought she could depend on the resolute support of her friend whom she affectionately called “Ronnie,” and was shocked to her core when Reagan hesitated. This was because Kirkpatrick was friends with the Argentine generals and angrily argued that the US should not “take sides” in the war - exactly Zero’s position today.
Haig would have none of it. He denounced Kirkpatrick’s phony neutrality and demanded Reagan support the Brits with money, materiel, and no reservations. Then he went to see Bill Casey.
Haig asked Reagan’s CIA Director what could be done. “We have an asset aboard the San Luis,” the one really dangerous submarine the Argentines had, Casey revealed. “He could sabotage the Argies’ German SST-4 torpedoes. We could tell him just how to do it so everyone would think it was an unsuspicious malfunction. The boat is still in port at Puerto Belgrano, set to sail in a few days.”
Haig then went to see Reagan, who came to his senses, authorized Casey to proceed, and called up “Maggie” to apologize and offer full US support.
And so it was on May 1, 1982, when the San Luis fired a torpedo that hit the Royal Navy frigate HMS Brilliant, the torpedo - powerful enough to sink the ship - failed to explode. On May 10, the San Luis fired two torpedoes. The one launched at the HMS Arrow failed to leave its tube. The one launched at the HMS Alacrity hit its target - and failed to explode.
The San Luis returned to port, the British Navy, instead of its ships disastrously sunk, controlled the sea, thus allowing for a successful counter-invasion. The Argentines surrendered on June 14. Thatcher had won the war and Reagan was a hero to the Brits - thanks to Alexander Haig.
To my knowledge, this story has never been told before. The US Navy’s account of Submarine Operations During the Falklands War is oblivious to it, attributing what happened on the San Luis to unexplained circumstances. I know the story because Casey, over a drink or two many years ago, told it to me.”
http://www.tothepointnews.com/content/view/3986/150/