The first sign of the downturn was the ghost fleet off of the coast of China and the mountains of empty containers. If the containers are moving again, it is a fair bet that the economy will start moving again as well. However the question is howl quickly we will get back to pre-collapse numbers. Also there is the question of a double dip when the stimulus numbers dry up.
1 Trillion Dollars buys a lot of cheap plastic Chinese crap.
When that runs out, though....
Of course, Uncle Sam can crank up the presses and print another trillion.....