Posted on 03/29/2010 8:36:51 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
Here is an update to the Vulnerable House Democrats - Master List that was posted yesterday on this thread.
It is still a work in progress but at least we are making progress. Comments on any our choices are welcomed and we are particularly interested in who we should be favoring in the various Primaries. We need good strong conservatives who can win in November.
The Chart has grown large enough that I'm posting it in two parts. Note that Names with a * in front of the name represents a Freeper Endorsement. We need more of those from everyone to help sort out the mad scramble of the Republican Primaries. The little pink box on some lines tell us that there are more than just the 3 candidates listed that are running. Those listed may or may not be the best. We need help sorting that out. It is, at this point the most critical need we have.
The Leans R etc. data is from Larry Sabato, ElectionProjection.com and CQPolitics.com. There are some blanks that I will fill in for the next update.
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We need to win most of these!
•District 17: Republican Primary May 18th
McCain 51% 2008
Tim Holden (D) (Incumbent)Voted No on Obamacare, considered safe, but I ain't buying it.
Dave Argall (R) – State Sen., Ex-State Rep. & College Instructor
Josh First (R) – Businessman
Frank Ryan (R) – Accountant, USMC Veteran & ‘04 Candidate
My 2 cents. In the very early days of health care, when we were out picketing Connelly’s office, Fimian was right out there. While I like the other candidates, Fimian was there from the start.
If Stupak, Grayson, Baron “It’s my meeting” Hill, Owens, Kanjorski get reelected, the ballot box has failed.
This is exactly the kind of input we need. Much thanks. I'll update the chart today to show Chris Gibson as a Freeper endorsed candidate and delete Tedisco. I'll leave Ziegler on the list for now.
Can you say for certain that none of the other candidates are viable?
So who is looking like the winner in AZ-1? We need to cut our list of candidates down to the real players.
Can you help?
We show that it’s Hurd vs. Canseco in the Primary. Is Hurd the favorite or the underdog? What do we know about Canseco? Is TX-23 a solid R district? Can Hurd win in November?
Sorry to say. If there is polling data that shows otherwise let us know. There will certainly be some moves from the SAFE-DEM column but right now CA-23 doesn't look like one of them.
At some point we will do that but I don't believe it can be managed on Google Docs. My experience is that it is just to slow. But we can import the current Excel spreadsheet to Google Docs. That we will do.
I want to add a "latest poll" link to spreadsheet at some point. However, I doubt if we are going to see much polling during the Primary Season. If I'm wrong about that please let me know.
Also, if Ras is posting "leans R", "leans D" information we would use that for sure. If so, give me a link.
Help us out.
Who can/should beat Chet Edwards? We show Flores and Curnock. Who's the best conservative. Who's the favorite?
Here are the links:
See Post #52. Can you help us sort this one out?
What do you know about David Argall? Is he a conservative. Should we back him? Can you help us sort out PA-17. Right now we have NO DATA. Do you know who else is running?
Ditto IL-10.
Putnam (R). Which seat are you talking about?
I suspect Fitzpatrick will be the nominee. He was the incumbent narrowly edged out by Patrick “Mini-Murtha” Murphy in 2006 and he has a serious name recognition advantage. Murphy did much better in 2008 riding Obomba’s coat tails, but that won’t work this time. Fitzpatrick will probably be the GOP “approved” candidate, for better or worse.
CA-23 looks like a SAFE-DEM to us. Is there any polling or other data indicating an R pickup?
I should add that Fitzpatrick had an ACU lifetime rating of 53, which makes him a solid RINO. But compare that with Mini-Murtha Murphy, who has a lifetime rating of 6.67.
The other challenger, Ira Hoffman, was profiled in an article linked at his website. This is what the author wrote:
Hoffman, who envisions himself as a "citizen legislator" and a political "moderate"...
If this is true, Republican voters need to spit him out. If indeed this guy is willing to assume the "moderate" label, that's a giant red flag. 20 posted on Monday, March 29, 2010 9:09:28 PM by Lancey Howard
This is EXACTLY the reason why we need to get our list up to date and showing the candidates we want to win in the Primary and in November. We need to identify the RINOs early and make sure we give our support to good conservative candidates.
We show 4 candidates for this seat. Check out the links in Post #52 on this thread and tell us what you think about all of them. We need to pick a winner and support him/her.
This is WI-7. We show it as SAFE-DEM so it doesn't make our list. Do you have any polling data that would show that Duffy really has a chance?
What do you know about Andy Harris? Is he a good conservative worthy of the backing of Freepers? Is he the CERTAIN winner of the Republican Primary. Should we toss all the other candidates off our list?
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