Posted on 03/25/2010 8:46:28 PM PDT by freespirited
Democratic Congressman Earl Pomeroy’s vote Sunday for President Obama’s national health care plan seems to have had little impact so far on North Dakota’s U.S. House race.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state, taken Tuesday night, shows Republican Rick Berg leading Pomeroy by seven points, 51% to 44%. Just one percent (1%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Last month, in Rasmussen Reports’ first Election 2010 survey of the race, Berg led Pomeroy by six, 46% to 40%. Incumbents who earn less than 50% of the vote at this stage of a campaign are viewed as vulnerable.
Pomeroy, a member of the House since 1993, was reelected to his ninth term in the House in 2008 with 62% of the vote.
Opposition to the health care plan is even higher in North Dakota than it is nationally. Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters in the state favor the plan, while 58% oppose it. That includes 20% who Strongly Favor it and 48% who Strongly Oppose it.
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of those who Strongly Oppose the health care plan support Berg. Ninety-seven percent (97%) of those who Strongly Favor the plan support Pomeroy.
The state’s anti-incumbency mood, sparked in part by unhappiness with the health care plan, prompted longtime Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan to announce at the first of the year that he would not seek reelection. Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers from North Dakota’s race for the U.S. Senate tomorrow.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of North Dakota voters think it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were defeated this November. Twenty-six percent (26%) say it would be better if most are reelected. Nineteen percent (19%) are not sure.
However, 40% believe their local representative in Congress deserves reelection. Forty-seven percent (47%) disagree and say he does not deserve reelection. Pomeroy is not named in the question, but he is North Dakota’s only member of Congress.
Berg carries male voters by 20 points, while Pomeroy edges him by three points among women. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the Republican by a 49% to 38% margin.
Pomeroy is viewed very favorably by 29% of the state’s voters and very unfavorably by 35%. Just three percent (3%) have no opinion of the longtime congressman.
Twenty-two percent (22%) have a very favorable view of Berg, a Fargo businessman and state representative who last Saturday was chosen as the GOP’s House nominee at the party’s state convention. Only nine percent (9%) view Berg very unfavorably, but 21% don’t know enough about him to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion.
At this early stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.
Thirty-seven percent (37%) of North Dakota voters have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement. Thirty-two percent (32%) do not. Only 12% consider themselves part of that movement.
A number of states are now suing the federal government over the requirement in the health care plan that every American must obtain health insurance, arguing that it is unconstitutional. Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters in North Dakota favor that requirement, including 21% who Strongly Favor it. But 60% oppose the requirement, with 44% who Strongly Oppose it.
Forty-eight percent (48%) think their state should sue the government to prevent the requirement from becoming law. Thirty-eight percent (38%) oppose such a suit.
When it comes to health care decisions, 53% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies, while 32% fear private insurers more.
Thirty-two percent (32%) rate the president’s handling of health care reform as good or excellent. Fifty-three percent (53%) say he’s done a poor job.
John McCain won North Dakota in the 2008 presidential election by a 53% to 45% margin. Forty-four percent (44%) of the state’s voters now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, including 25% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-five percent (55%) disapprove of the president’s performance, with 42% who Strongly Disapprove. This is roughly comparable to Obama’s approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Rasmussen Reports also has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Ohio, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin.
Maybe he'll get 26% this time.
Unless how he would vote was unknown until the votes were cast on Sunday, then the impact of his vote was already built into the polls.
When is the election?
November. An incumbent House member that is losing to the “other guy” at this point with the “other guy” having over 50% is absolute toast. And it will only get worse. I don’t expect Pomeroy to even try. The DCCC won’t waste a dime with these numbers.
“Obama’s national health care plan seems to have had little impact so far on North Dakota’s U.S. House race.”
Huh. Looks like 4-5% increase for Berg and a 4% decrease for Pomeroy. Looks like a change to me and for the better.
He's gone from winning his first election with 62% of the vote to trailing a nearly unknown state legislator from Fargo, the city which the rest of the state loves to hate, by 7%. Let's see what impact the vote has once Berg gets a little name recognition outside of Imperial Cass County.
Moneybomb for Berg, he should run ads with Nancy Pelosi, John Dingelberry we control the people, and of course Obama saying he supports single payer.
“An incumbent House member that is losing to the “other guy” at this point with the “other guy” having over 50% is absolute toast. And it will only get worse. I don’t expect Pomeroy to even try. The DCCC won’t waste a dime with these numbers.”
LOL! Sweet!
Add in a clip with Baucus (?) in a drunken stupor saying it is all about wealth redistribution.
I have always thought Pomeroy was a sleazy weasel douschebag. My apology to weasels.
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