The "10% chance" of retaking the majority in the House seems low. Michael Barrone had a more optimistic outlook just a week ago.
Five? What will that do? Did it matter who was a Senator once Caesar became EMPEROR? We are past talking and voting.
I think it’s going to be more than five seats. I think seven to ten is more likely.
LLS
It would mean Obama’s reign of terror would be over!
Nate Silver is no Republican partisan and he’s currently projecting +5 for the GOP. Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg are both predicting similar gains. I think the final number could wind up between 7 and 10.
North Dakota and Delaware are virtual locks. Hoeven and Castle are both the strongest Republican office holders in their respective states. Arkansas, Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Illinois are also prime targets and Republicans expect to win at least 3 of those 6 races. The big question is how competitive the races will end up in places like California, New York, Wisconsin, and Washington. Republicans are defending a bunch of their own seats and at least four of those are expected to be close races (Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, Kentucky). Open seats in Florida and Kansas are heavily favored for the Republicans. It appears they have dodged a few bullets with a few of their own incumbents, namely Richard Burr and David Vitter. Both were thought to be vulnerable but the political winds have shifted and neither is expected to be seriously challenged at this point.
Senate seats 20
House seats 100