Posted on 03/23/2010 7:00:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In Washington, everybody knows about unintended consequences: the outcomes you fail to anticipate when you change the way something works. But there's another phenomenon that works somewhat in reverse: Preregulatory paranoia, or the fear that new rules meant to make the system better will instead produce mayhem and disaster.
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Still, the overheated claims and counterclaims about healthcare reform have produced widespread confusion about what the new legislation will actually do. Here are a few of the most overblown concerns:
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1) The government will take over one sixth of the economy.
That would be alarming if it were true. But government involvement in healthcare will increase gradually over time and remain modest, especially since there's no "public option" in the current plan that would set up a government-run insurer. If you have doubts, consider the attitude of professional investors, who would stand to lose a lot if the government took over healthcare. They don't exactly seem worried. Shares of health insurers like Aetna, UnitedHealth, Wellpoint, and Cigna—subject to the strongest new rules under reform—have outperformed the stock market over the past year.
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2) The federal debt will explode.
It might, but not because of healthcare reform. The Congressional Budget Office—which is probably the most reliable, nonpartisan number-crunching outfit in Washington—says the reforms will reduce government deficits by $143 billion through 2019, thanks to new taxes and fees and cost savings in government healthcare programs like Medicare. But opponents of the bill and powerful lobbying groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce say otherwise, and they seem to have had a stronger influence on public opinion than CBO's methodical analysis.
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3) Doctors will revolt.
Doctors don't like the current system, in which insurance companies call the shots. But instead of sweeping reform and more government involvement, they prefer gradual reform that puts more control in the hands of … doctors. In one recent survey, nearly one third of physicians said they'd consider leaving medicine if reform passes, which it now has. Doctors worry that the new rules will cut into their incomes—which may happen, eventually. But it's implausible that thousand of doctors who have dedicated years to a complex profession will simply quit. What will they do? Become accountants?
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4) Businesses will suffer.
The new rules will impose fees on businesses with more than 50 employees if their workers receive government subsidies to buy insurance in lieu of employer-provided coverage. Business groups complain that this could stunt economic growth and slow hiring. But businesses are more resourceful than that. It's true that many companies will have to absorb additional costs, which they do every year anyway when health insurance premiums go up. But well-run companies excel at solving problems.
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5) Socalized medicine is on the way.
In the Kaiser poll, 41 percent of respondents said they believe the new law would require people who already get insurance through their employer to change their coverage. But most people who already have health coverage won't have to change anything, unless they want to. The new rules will have the most direct impact on people who don't have coverage, or who don't get it through an employer. Those who fear the advent of "socialized medicine" mainly seem to worry that the current set of reforms is just Phase 1, to be followed by bigger changes that will replace doctors with bureaucrats and render individual patients even more powerless than they are now. This is supposed to happen despite the likelihood that the Democrats who supported reform will lose seats in the November elections, while Republicans who opposed reform will gain seats. It seems much more likely that after surviving the battles of the last year, the current for-profit healthcare industry will be with us for the foreseeable future.
I halfway expect some enterprising country to start trying to entice American doctors with some sort of incentives.
I wrote US NEWS recently, mailed the letter in one of their pre-paid envelopes, telling them exactly WHY I was letting my subscription expire.
This lameass article is one example why.
This actually raises the question, “How can this bill be 2700 pages and NOT include single-payer? What the hell is in there?”
Exactly.
Those are covered by the “General Welfare” clause, the proponents say.
And upon signing the bill, he declared: “Let them eat cake!”
The WH communications staff DOES write this stuff. If it wasn't for them US News & the MSM wouldn't know what to PRINT.
LOL I had a Canadian lecturing me on the Constitution this morning.
“there is no public option in the plan”..................
When the private insurance companies are driven into insolvency because they pay out WAAAAAY more than they take in........Remember..... profit and loss.........
Bammy will step in and take them over like he did GM.
BAM! There will be your public option.
Bammy will say... “ So sorry, I had no choice but to do this. I had to SAVE the insurane companies. They are now controlled completely by the federal government”
Insurance companies do not call the shots. Medicare and medicaid do. The reasonable and customary floor that insurance companies use is the re-imbursement set by Medicare and Medicaid. If the insurance cmmpany comes in at all above this level, then private insurance is more cost effective to the health care provider than government insurance. The health care bill increases the amount of leverage for the government reimbursement. The insurance companies will just follow that lead.
Good post BTTT
It might,
Uh, helloooo! Anybody do math there? Already there.
I'm going to look into the religious exception route, but if I can't get that to work then I'll go uninsured and just activate when I need it. The penalty is 2%. If you make 40,000 that is only $800. You can save that much in just a few months of not paying premiums.
I think the deal is, Obama cut the insurance industry a special backroom deal, when that runs out, and the 2 points you mention have time to impact the insurance companies then they will start to go out of business...which the democrats will then try to use as leverage to call for a single payer system since private companies will be unable to provide insurance. If nothing is done, I doubt private insurance companies last more than a decade or so.
1) The government will take over one sixth of the economy.
That would be alarming if it were true. But government involvement in healthcare will increase gradually over time and remain modest, especially since there's no "public option" in the current plan that would set up a government-run insurer. If you have doubts, consider the attitude of professional investors, who would stand to lose a lot if the government took over healthcare. They don't exactly seem worried. Shares of health insurers like Aetna, UnitedHealth, Wellpoint, and Cigna—subject to the strongest new rules under reform—have outperformed the stock market over the past year. Because investors are interested in profit; AND, unlike the new gov't health care, investors can get OUT of stocks in the stock market.
2) The federal debt will explode.
It might, but not because of healthcare reform. The Congressional Budget Office—which is probably the most reliable, nonpartisan number-crunching outfit in Washington—says [but cannot "guarantee" because politicians use the CBO to manipulate by proposing a Medicare cut and then reversing it in another bill] the reforms will reduce government deficits by $143 billion through 2019, thanks to new taxes and fees and cost savings in government healthcare programs like Medicare. --- [Dems are set to introduce legislation to reverse this, as predicted.]
3) Doctors will revolt.
Doctors don't like the current system, in which insurance companies call the shots. But instead of sweeping reform and more government involvement, they prefer gradual reform that puts more control in the hands of … doctors. In one recent survey, nearly one third of physicians said they'd consider leaving medicine if reform passes, which it now has. Doctors worry that the new rules will cut into their incomes—which may happen, eventually. But it's implausible that thousand of doctors who have dedicated years to a complex profession will simply quit. What will they do? Become accountants? It is an act of incredible stupidity to state this. If nothing else, does the author realize that doctors retire and die, and need to be replaced?
4) Businesses will suffer.
The new rules will impose fees on businesses with more than 50 employees if their workers receive government subsidies to buy insurance in lieu of employer-provided coverage. Business groups complain that this could stunt economic growth and slow hiring. But businesses are more resourceful than that. It's true that many companies will have to absorb additional costs, which they do every year anyway when health insurance premiums go up. But well-run companies excel at solving problems. [Yes, they raise prices. Corporations don't really pay taxes, the consumer does.]
5) Socalized medicine is on the way.
In the Kaiser poll, 41 percent of respondents said they believe the new law would require people who already get insurance through their employer to change their coverage. But most people who already have health coverage won't have to change anything, unless they want to. The new rules will have the most direct impact on people who don't have coverage, or who don't get it through an employer. Those who fear the advent of "socialized medicine" mainly seem to worry that the current set of reforms is just Phase 1, to be followed by bigger changes that will replace doctors with bureaucrats and render individual patients even more powerless than they are now. This is supposed to happen despite the likelihood that the Democrats who supported reform will lose seats in the November elections, while Republicans who opposed reform will gain seats. It seems much more likely that after surviving the battles of the last year, the current for-profit healthcare industry will be with us for the foreseeable future.[In other words, "it is true that this will happen", UNLESS we vote out all Democrats in the next election and forever in the future.]
My Dad is 84 and on Medicare and Tri-Care (I think that’s what it’s called, he’s retired military). They have changed and changed and changed his coverage over the years, so who can trust them anyway. I do worry about him, he is on a fixed income, is very frugal, worked and put money away, and I just hope he does ok. (of course, we will help him if it comes to that, but the point is, you cannot trust the govt to honor their promises).
Here’s a variation of the broken windows fallacy — We can wish that there should be more sick and unhealthy people in this country so that the healthcare industry will grow and more jobs in the healthcare sector will be created.
WHile we’re at it, let’s complicate the tax code some more so that more people will need to become accountants who will try to navigate the maze of our tax code. You are essentially CREATING more jobs for accoutants. And oh yeah, don’t forget more jobs for IRS agents as well, who will be hired to ENFORCE the tax code.
VOILA !! JObs for both private and public sector !!
While we’re at it, let’s add more laws and regulations so that LAWYERS will be hired who can understand the legalese we’ve just created.
VOILA !! more jobs for the LEGAL industry !!
Let’s decree that businesses should go green so that more green jobs will be created as well. Let’s decree that GM and Chrysler design and manufacture GREEN CARS and let’s subsidize them so that such cars will be commonplace.
VOILA !! A whole new sector — the green sector created that will kill two birds with one stone -— make our environment cleaner AND add new jobs at the same time !
Think of the possibilities, schools and technical institutes will now be offering courses on green technology and we now will be HIRING new teachers/professors/professionals to teach these courses.
If you speak to a liberal ( and a liberal economics professor ), that’s how their minds work.
Still, the overheated claims and counterclaims about healthcare reform have produced widespread confusion about what the new legislation will actually do.
No G_D confusion here.
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