Race for Control of Congress Remains Close [Dems Have 47%-44% Edge: Really?]

Gallup ^ | March 21, 2010 | Lydia Saad

[Steelfish]

March 16, 2010 Race for Control of Congress Remains Close Current Democratic lead among registered voters is slimmer than in past elections

by Lydia Saad

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's weekly read on the race for Congress shows Democrats with a 47% to 44% edge over Republicans among registered voters, unchanged from last week. However, this represents a significantly smaller margin for the Democrats than the final Gallup estimate before the last midterm elections, in 2006.

Gallup polls since October 2009 have consistently found the two major parties closely matched in voter preferences for the 2010 midterm congressional elections. This is a significant departure from 2006 -- the year the Democratic Party regained majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In the two prior midterm elections (1998 and 2002), while Democrats also held the upper hand among registered voters, they trailed among likely voters -- and ultimately failed to win control of the House.

[AmishDude]

Rubbish. Ras last showed the GOP with a 10 point advantage on the generic ballot question.

[Ikemeister]

Rasmussen has the GOP with a +10 on the generic ballot. Methinks Gallup is cooking the books.

[johniegrad]

NFW!!!

[clintonh8r]

There will be big GOP gains, but actual control is another matter. It would be sweet, and we are within striking distance. The trick will be to defeat the RATs who vote no today. They will be harder to beat than the "ayes."

[Red in Blue PA]

Sure they do....among inner city voters.

The rest of the country? No effing way.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Ronald Reagan wasn’t supposed to win in 1980, either.

[GoCards]

Bullshit

[HANG THE EXPENSE]

Gallup/hogwash

[SmokingJoe]

Rasmussen:
Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans Lead Democrats by 10 in Generic Ballot, Highest Lead Yet
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
"Republican candidates have now stretched their lead over Democrats to 10 points in the Generic Congressional Ballot, their biggest lead ever in nearly three years of weekly tracking." The GOP has been leading on the ballot for months."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

[SmokingJoe]

There will be big GOP gains, but actual control is another matter

The GOP is a head of the Democrats by a bigger margin in the Rasmussen poll right now, than the Democrats were ahead of the GOP back in 2008 when they won their huge majorities. We take the House in November.

[nathanbedford]

I think the discrepancies between Gallup and Rasmussen can partly be reconciled by the fact that Rasmussen polls likely voters in Gallup registered voters. Even Gallup stipulates that when likely voters are considered the polls will move toward the Republicans.

Very significant, however, is how the voters are distributed or concentrated for one side or the other. For example, in black districts the vote will be 90 to 95% for the Democrat. The more such districts with high concentrations for Democrats leaves fewer voters in marginal districts to help the Democrat out and it will be in the marginal or blue dog districts, I understand there are about 80 of them, in which the fate of the house will be determined. If the Democrats shoot their demographic load in their safe districts they won't have any dry powder left for the ones that count.

Another very significant factor that these polls do not measure his intensity and clearly, Republicans enjoy a huge edge in that important factor. The charisma is drained away from Obama and I doubt if he will be able to have coattails except in safe districts.

[annieokie]

They are only trying to boost up the confidence of the Democrats as they go to vote on HC.

[Maelstorm]

This is Gallop. It showed a much greater Democrat advantage in 1994 if I remember correctly.

[stylin19a]

Gallup trends suggest that the Democrats' current three-point advantage among registered voters would probably translate into a Republican lead among likely voters, pointing to a highly competitive election this fall for majority control of Congress. Support for Democratic candidates is down moderately from 2008 in all regions but the West.

I wasn't able to find the demographics re: party affiliation of those polled. I'm guessing, again, RATS were oversampled.

[freespirited]

The generic ballot has long had a tendency to overstate RAT strength. AFAIK, no one has figured out why.

Maybe Republicans are sick of pollsters, I dont know.

[clintonh8r]

It would be sweet.

[bilhosty]

Rasmussen is among likely voters and Gallup is registered voters so of course Gallups is going to show the Dem's doing better than Ras. Also don't forget that Republicans almost always do better in the actual voters than any polls showing generic congressional votes show. Gallups numbers are actually good news.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Gallup polls Registered Voters which they mention didn’t prevail over likely voters. Ras. polls likely voters which is much more reliable.

[firefox]

Gallup predicted a 1980 Carter win over Reagan the day before the election while other polls showed Reagan by a landslide. Over the years Gallup polls, by content predisposition and disingenuous methods, (e.g.,registered voters rather than likely voters, “engineered” questions) have shown more political proselytizing than scientific measurment.