“2010 Massachusetts Senate: Coakley 50%, Brown 41%
Tuesday, January 05, 2010”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/massachusetts/2010_massachusetts_senate_coakley_50_brown_41
Coakley was ahead of Scott Brown by 9 points with 2 weeks to go, and still got clobbered. By comparison, JD is only behind by only 7%, and has over 4 months to overtake McInsane.
The other comparison would be to Rubio against Crist in FL. It started off with Crist ahead by a massive 22% (same margin McCain was a head of JD by on Jan 20).
August 19, 2009
2010 Florida GOP Primary: Crist 53%, Rubio 31%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/florida/2010_florida_gop_primary_crist_53_rubio_31
Within 2 months, Rubio had closed the gap to 14 points
October 21, 2009
2010 Florida GOP Senate Primary: Crist 49%, Rubio 35%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/florida/2010_florida_gop_senate_primary_crist_49_rubio_35
4 months after the first poll, Rubio was even with Crist:
December 15, 2009
2010 Florida GOP Senate Primary: Crist 43%, Rubio 43%
On Feb 1, 5 months after the poll which had Crist ahead by 22%, Rubi has overtaken Crist:
February 01, 2010
Florida GOP Senate: Rubio 49%, Crist 37%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/florida/florida_gop_senate_rubio_49_crist_37
So far, I'd say JD is moving on a faster overtaking trajectory than Rubio did. Rubio only managed to close up on Crist to 14 points from the 22 point deficit in 2 months, JD has managed to close his deficit from 22 points to only 7 points within 2 months. The next Rasmussen poll 2 months from now could prove very good news for JD. I am going to be looking for a deficit of 3 points or less if JD keeps attention to business. All the massive million dollar McCain attack ads haven't done him any good.
If I were McCain, I wouldn't be sleeping too good at night.