Keep in mind, these markets are VERY thin. The “real-world” markets like the stock market have enough trouble pricing in information; compound that even further for InTrade where there are less participants. In my opinion, InTrade is for entertainment only.
Still, it could be a good sign...
I’ve heard an InTrade score above 60% would indicate passage of Obamacare, hence a fall to 35% would mean the tide is running against the bill.
...”...the bill’s chances of passage have been trending up in the InTrade political futures market, where prices now stand in the mid-60s. Anything above 50% can be interpreted as a bet in favor of passage. I don’t put too much stock in InTrade, because it tends to be a lagging indicator that responds to information that is already available. Yet this means that the information already available causes more traders to believe it will pass than not.” —Robert Tracinski
SOURCE:
http://ronbosoldier.blogspot.com/2010/03/obamacare-beware-american-ides-of-march.html