THe more practical question is this: how long will it be before the Dems can come up with a replacement... or can this district be taken from them in a special election?
A special election is necessary for House seats. As the district is the most conservative in NY State (in an Upstate district), it’s highly unlikely that this stays in Dem control.
Whether it becomes an R seat before the health care vote is unlikely - as Gov. Paterson (D) controls the date of the special election.