In the next few weeks if not the next few days I expect the idea that the Senate will pass a Reconciliation Bill prior to a House vote on the Senate version of ObamaCare will rise steadily to the forefront of discussions.
The reason why: It is the Dems ONLY SOLUTION. And it is, very likely ILLEGAL. If not illegal it is certainly in violation of the Senate rules which require that the use of the reconciliation process is only allowed to make certain types of modifications to EXISTING LAW. Until the House passes the bill and Obama signs it there is no LAW. So the Dems can't put the buggy in front of the horse. But of course they will try. It is the only choice they have left.
So get out the popcorn and start watching for the Dems to begin explaining why what I wrote above is not really true in this case. You read it here first. You will soon be reading about it in the WSJ and listening to discussions about it on Fox News.
The House must pass the Senate bill first. The Senate cannot reconcile with no exact bill in the other chamber.
There is even question as to whether BO has to sign the Senate bill into law (assuming the House votes for the Senate bill as is) b4 they take up any reconciliation measure.
Kent Conrad and other reconcilation experts (Morrissey, NRO) have unequivocally stated that the House must pass the Senate bill first. They cannot change a single comma, and they are taking a yes vote on all the corruption.
Pelosi is in trouble and Boehner was shrewd to force her hand today. He is keeping seniors stirred up, escalating pressure on all vulnerable RATS, and raising expectations on the Left.
Pelosi will not schedule a vote unless and until she has the votes. She would never subject her members to another needless and precarious exercise. My guess is that she blame Stupak.
But in your scenario, the Senate would need 60 to pass this new “fixer” bill.