I theorize that getting the nomination in ‘12 is a 2-step process:
1. Defeat Romney completely (so that he is out of consideration.)
2. The race is now opened up for the Republican rank n’ file to choose a candidate.
The parallel race to look at is Dole 1996. Dole was on the ropes, but never knocked out. He need to be DEFEATED first, for the race to genuinely be opened up. All his opponents in the party failed on step 1.
Therefore, in NHampshire, I will likely support whomever is in a position to defeat SlickWillard in his must-win state. Assuming Willard is still a serious threat come autumn ‘11. The situation will differ in each state. But recklessly getting behind your favorite candidate without regard to the situation in your specific state is the knucklehead approach.
Re: Dole ‘96. I’m going to admit that I supported his nomination that year. I tend to be troubled when I see bashing of him for a number of reasons. At that time, I personally wanted someone with the necessary maturity (so dreadfully lacking in Clinton), the war experience as a veteran, and the political experience in dealing with the thugs on the hill. It was one reason why as long ago as 1988, I preferred Dole to GHW Bush (albeit that year I was too young to cast a vote). Dole may not have been sexy, but I think he would’ve done a decent job as President.
As for Dole’s opponents in ‘96, I just plain didn’t care for them. Lamar! for obvious reasons of RINOcity. Forbes because he lacked political experience. He needed to start by running for NJ Governor as his father had (albeit Malcolm lost). And as for Pat Buchanan... yeah, don’t think I have to explain that. It is rather astonishing more serious candidates never entered, especially on the Gubernatorial side.
I still can’t believe how poorly a general election race he ran. I wouldn’t outright accuse him of deliberately losing (as McCain can be forcefully accused of), only that he didn’t go to the fullest extent that he should have in trying to win. In some aspects, he took it all TOO seriously, and the public saw an old, humorless guy, rather than one who can be quite witty and personable, who could’ve put the latter to good use as a nice starting point and then segueing into why we needed grown-up leadership. I would’ve advised him to show off more of that personable side of him (if I recall, after the election was over, he went and appeared on Leno, fairly loosened up and the like, had the crowd entertained, and I believe Leno blurted out, “Wow, if I had known you were this (entertaining), I’d have voted for you.” The election was close enough in a lot of states that with a bit more of a push, and getting the Perot people, Dole could’ve turned it into a narrow win.