'China shunning N.K. contingencies'

The Korean Hearld ^ | 2/23/2010 | Kim Ji-hyun

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

China, as a "traditional friend" to North Korea, is loathe to discuss contingency plans to prepare for possible political unrest in the reclusive regime, a Chinese scholar said yesterday. The reason is partially because the Chinese do not believe the internal political system in the North is subject to imminent collapse, and also because North Korea has its rights as a United Nations member and sovereign country.

"Beijing would look at a possible political implosion in North Korea in the most negative terms and would never try to destabilize that country or join others to do so," said Wang Ji-si, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University.

Wang was speaking at the Northeast Asia Forum co-hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and the Ilmin International Relations Institute yesterday.

Even in the case of such contingencies in the North, Wang said, "China should not stand idly by when other countries intervene in North Korea, taking political and military control."

Some form of political change is likely to take place, however, as the aging North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is poised to transfer his authority to his youngest son.

Kim's successor is widely expected to inherit his "whole package of domestic and foreign policies," Wang said, including North Korea's persistence to maintain nuclear weapons programs.

"The more desirable outcome would be a gradual transformation in North Korea that would make its leadership believe that building nuclear arms would be both unnecessary and costly," the expert suggested.

Wang's comments come as the international society is struggling to obtain an accurate view of the economic and political circumstances in North Korea amid reports that Kim Jong-il is straddled with both financial hardships and the task of smoothly bequeathing his authority.

[Ronin]

None of the old men in Beijing really want to think about what would happen if NK implodes. Since they don’t have to do anything they don’t want to, that means the problem is ignored — at their level.

I do believe, however, at the division and regimental level, there are staffers who are working on “exercises” that will closely match what steps the PLA will take if things in Pyongyang go totally spastic.

Not that they are going to talk about it to anyone in the West...