[LS]

Ok, the good news is that now, despite a couple of blips that take him up to 49 or (even once) 50%, he is stuck in the mid-40s. I continue to think this represents his best possible number, but also a strong “holdout” number of people who still, despite all the evidence, “want him to succeed.” I think perhaps all it will take is one last big screw-up or crisis to knock this number down into the high 30s, which I think will likely be his permanent high/low because of an unmovable 12% of blacks and 25% hard-core libs.

[Nonstatist]

He's only 1 year in on a 4 year term. Its still early; (some) people have hope still. Objectively, these numbers are poor.

I think after the midterms the acrimony toward him and his obstinancy will grow substantially. I see a disappointing ending for this lightweight.

[RU88]

Am in complete agreement with your observation. He will always have a floor of around 30 to 35% between blacks and hard core liberals/socialists. The key is making sure he doesn't get that other 16 to 21% back. The middle ground is shifting and it's not going in his favor. That's why “rahming” this health care bill through Congress looks like nothing short of political suicide.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

I agree with your assessment on his (Obama’s) left-wing, liberal, progressive base numbers, but I disagree with your estimate of Black voter support. Yes, an overwhelming number of Black folk today still support Obama, but that support will erode as more Black folk come to find that Obama will do more damage to them then all the White racists in the world combined. Obama has been President since November 2008. It is now sixteen months later and, he has not done one measurable positive thing for Black folks, or in fact, any minority group at all. Real truth is, he has not done one positive thing for the entire country other then to continue to destroy the American economy and put the country in harm’s wasy. Obama has a left-wing, socialist mission. He could care less about any racial or minority group. He only cares for the destruction of America. Sooner or later, Black folk will come to realize Obama is taking them to the same collective state he wants us all in!!!

[newfreep]

"...to knock this number down into the high 30s, which I think will likely be his permanent high/low because of an unmovable 12% of blacks and 25% hard-core libs.

Generally agree except blacks & hard core libs are not mutually exclusive so he has more room to drop/fail.

[hoosiermama]

Balls and Urns:
Iowahawk explains “margin of error”
Iowahawk | December 27, 2008 | David Burge
Posted on Monday, October 27, 2008 10:22:48 PM by xjcsa
[excerpting the end of the article; click below for the whole thing]
This is, for all intents and purposes, how political pollsters compute the ubiquitous “margin of error,” which has everything to do (and only to do) with pure mathematical sampling error. If you look at the formula above and round it just a smidge, you get a simple rule of thumb for margin of error:
Margin of Error = 1 / sqrt(n)
So if the sample size is 400, the margin of error is 1/20 = 5%; if the sample size is 625 the margin of error is 1/25 = 4%; if the sample size is 1000, it’s about 3%.
Works pretty well if you’re interested in hypothetical colored balls in hypothetical giant urns, or growth of plants in a controlled experiment, or defects in a batch of factory products. It may even work well if you’re interested in blind cola taste tests. But what if the thing you are studying doesn’t quite fit the balls & urns template?
* What if 40% of the balls have personally chosen to live in an urn that you legally can’t stick your hand into?
* What if 50% of the balls who live in the legal urn explicitly refuse to let you select them?
* What if the balls inside the urn are constantly interacting and talking and arguing with each other, and can decide to change their color on a whim?
* What if you have to rely on the balls to report their own color, and some unknown number are probably lying to you?
* What if you’ve been hired to count balls by a company who has endorsed blue as their favorite color?
* What if you have outsourced the urn-ball counting to part-time temp balls, most of whom happen to be blue?
* What if the balls inside the urn are listening to you counting out there, and it affects whether they want to be counted, and/or which color they want to be?
If one or more of the above statements are true, then the formula for margin of error simplifies to Margin of Error = Who the hell knows
Because, in this case, so-called scientific “sampling error” is meaningless, because it is utterly overwhelmed by non-sampling error. Under these circumstances “margin of error” is a numeric fiction masquerading as a pseudo-scientific fact, and if a poll reports it — even if collected “scientifically” — the pollster is guilty of aggravated bulls**t in the first degree.
The moral of this midterm for all would-be pollsters: if you are really interested in how many of us red and blue balls there are in this great big urn, sit back and relax until November, and let us show our true colors.
Until then, fondle your own balls.