[panaxanax]

Agree as usual. If Romney is nominated, the GOP will lose by a landslide. Sarah can win it.

[Vigilanteman]

The way ObaMao's ratings are heading into the toilet, it is entirely possible that Mickey Mouse can beat him in 2012.

If you look at the history of Republican nominees in the last 70 years, nominating the guy whose turn it is worked out only once (Nixon in 1968 and by a razor-thin margin) and flopped in every other instance (Dewey in 1948, Nixon in 1960, Dole in 1996, McCain in 2008).

Admittedly, Dewey and Nixon both came close, but I don't think a formula with a 20% success rate, even against a weak candidate, is a particularly good idea. All four of the failure instances cited were not against particularly strong candidates although JFK in 1960 and BO in 2008 did have the wind to their backs in both instances.

[Vigilanteman]

On second thought, I probably should put Ford (1976) and Bush (1988) on the list of GOP nominees who got there because it was their turn.

So instead of a 1 in 5 success rate, we have a 2 in 7 success rate-- 28.6% rather than 20%. But I still don't think an 8.6% increase in the dismal success rate is anything to write home about.