Mullah Baradar capture 'a lucky accident'

Long War Journal ^ | February 19, 2010 1:08 AM | Bill Roggio

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The New York Times has the scoop on the capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Afghan Taliban's deputy commander. According to the Times, Baradar's capture was "a lucky accident":

When Pakistani security officers raided a house outside Karachi in late January, they had no idea that they had just made their most important capture in years.

American intelligence agencies had intercepted communications saying militants with a possible link to the Afghan Taliban’s top military commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, were meeting. Tipped off by the Americans, Pakistani counterterrorist officers took several men into custody, meeting no resistance.

Only after a careful process of identification did Pakistani and American officials realize they had captured Mullah Baradar himself, the man who had long overseen the Taliban insurgency against American, NATO, and Afghan troops in Afghanistan.

New details of the raid indicate that the arrest of the No. 2 Taliban leader was not necessarily the result of a new determination by Pakistan to go after the Taliban, or a bid to improve its strategic position in the region. Rather, it may be something more prosaic: “a lucky accident,” as one American official called it. “No one knew what they were getting,” he said.

Read the full article. If true, and in my opinion the article answers many unexplained questions, then it certainly explains quite a bit. Primarily, if the Pakistanis were serious about decapitating the Afghan Taliban's leadership cadre, much of the Quetta Shura would be in custody by now; so why hasn't this happened yet?

There is also an important fact in that article: the arrest was made by "Pakistani counterterrorist officers," who are from the counterterrorism branch of the ISI. This branch is supported by the US, and is considered reliable by US intelligence officials.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

fyi

[Jet Jaguar]

Bump

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Excerpt from the Times article ....link in the article...

******************************

Jostling over the prize began as soon as Mullah Baradar was identified. Officials with the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s military spy agency, limited American access to Mullah Baradar, not permitting direct questioning by Central Intelligence Agency officers until about two weeks after the raid, according to American officials who discussed the issue on the condition of anonymity.

[Straight Vermonter]

It is certainly what we would want AQ to believe.

Yeah, guys we haven’t infiltrated your network at all. We just got lucky this one time. Nothing at all to worry about.

[Marine_Uncle]

Yet another indicator that the Muslim nation of Pakistan is nothing beyond the Keystone cops at best.

[rlmorel]

In the intelligence world, you make your own luck by capitalizing on every single thing you can.

Luck is an integral part of good intelligence, as it is an integral part of any successful military operation.

There is a reason Napoleon used to ask of prospective officers he considered for command: “Is he lucky?”

[ASA Vet]

MI Ping

[null and void]

Why can I not shake the idea that ISI captured him not by luck, but as a mistake?

[null and void]

Hey, PAK is one of the most advanced muslim nations.

Damning with faint praise...

[Grampa Dave]

Victory at Midway was a “Lucky Break!”

[ASA Vet]

So was our overwhelming Tet 68 victory.
(There were a several of us involved in that “lucky break.”)

[Marine_Uncle]

Yeah. I forgot./sarc

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

More to look at...FR Thread:

Whoa: More than a dozen Taliban leaders seized by Pakistan intel

And:

Pakistan arrests more Afghan Taliban. Why the about-face?

[rlmorel]

...nod...:)

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest.

[Marine_Uncle]

The question of course remains. Just how serious is the Pakistan government in ridding divers Islamic radical organizations that do not in an immediate sense compromise the government of Pakistan. Are they willing to recognize they must join the western world in ridding their country of many different groups who based on their religious/political convictions make the whole world a less safe place.
This is the primary question we all seek. Perhaps within the next year or so we may have a reliable answer.
We can study each end of the spectrum of statements that go forth as how the Pakistan government in general has responded or not responded on this issue.
I for one respect all views. But the views often represent here may not in full represent the total picture.
There is room to differ. At least in this juncture in time.
Perhaps we shall see a continued expanded willingness on their part to battle all forms of radical Islamic terrorism that not only effects their nation but the whole world at large.