Amazongate: new evidence of the IPCC's failures

Telegraph ^ | 7:12PM GMT 30 Jan 2010 | Christopher Booker

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The IPCC is beginning to melt as global tempers rise, says Christopher Booker

The claim in an IPCC report that 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforest could disappear through global warming turned out to be unfounded Photo: LEE FOSTER/ALAMY

It is now six weeks since I launched an investigation, with my colleague Richard North, into the affairs of Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the hugely influential body which for 20 years has been the central driver of worldwide alarm about global warming. Since then the story has grown almost daily, leading to worldwide calls for Dr Pachauri's resignation. But increasingly this has also widened out to question the authority of the IPCC itself. Contrary to the tendentious claim that its reports represent a "consensus of the world's top 2,500 climate scientists" (most of its contributors are not climate experts at all), it has now emerged, for instance, that one of the more widely quoted scare stories from its 2007 report was drawn from the work of a British "green activist" who occasionally writes as a freelance for The Guardian and The Independent.

Last week I reported on "Glaciergate", the scandal which has forced the IPCC's top officials, led by Dr Pachauri, to disown a claim originating from an Indian glaciologist, Dr Syed Husnain, that the Himalayan glaciers could vanish by 2035. What has made this reckless claim in the IPCC's 2007 report even more embarrassing was the fact that Dr Husnain, as we revealed, was then employed by Dr Pachauri's own Delhi-based Energy and Resources Institute (Teri). His baseless scaremongering about the Himalayas helped to win Teri a share in two lucrative research contracts, one funded by the EU.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

This goes back to Jan...but is getting discussed on some Blogs .....

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The Blog turned up the evidence...discussion of this article:

Amazongate: the final phase

********************************EXCERPT****************************

The Booker column is up, with the headline: "Amazongate: new evidence of the IPCC's failures". This is the start of the final phase of the IPCC's meltdown.

Actually, the Amazon story only occupies one paragraph of the column, with the newspaper reacting to the building publicity by hyping it up in the headline. Booker actually addresses the wide-ranging failures of the IPCC, including a reference to Montford (of Bishop Hill fame) and his brilliant book The Hockey Stick Illusion. Buy it.

Booker concludes, of the IPCC that: "Bereft of scientific or moral authority, the most expensive show the world has ever seen may soon be nearing its end."

However, the BBC's Roger Harrabin is already swinging into damage-limitation mode on "Amazongate", quoting "Euro-sceptic blogger Richard North".

The hapless Harrabin is driven to play down the importance of this latest development, claiming that the inclusion of the WWF reference "is a blunder perhaps, but maybe of a different kind, because there is indeed plenty of published science warning about drought in the Amazon."

In so doing, he distorts the thrust of the Rowell Moore argument, which claims that "40% of Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation."

First of all, the figure is entirely unsubstantiated and secondly, although there is plenty of evidence that severe or prolonged drought can damage tracts of forest, there is no good (or any) evidence that a "slight reduction in precipitation" could have the drastic effect predicted.

Of special note, though, is Harrabin's choice of expert to back up his argument. He cites Dr Simon Lewis from Leeds University, who told him: "The IPCC statement is basically correct but poorly written, and bizarrely referenced." The full significance of this will not become apparent until my next post, so this is just a marker ... we will see Lewis in a different light.

Harrabin, though, is forced to concede that there are problems, stating: "It all points to the need for much greater transparency, though that will throw up issues of its own for a body striving to offer a coherent view to policymakers of an issue dominated by risk, uncertainty and values, rather that unambiguous science."

That this is the main problem is wishful thinking on his part. The IPCC is holed below the waterline, and our little BBC man is trying to stem the leaks with a paper tissue.

(Note – I'm starting a new forum thread, as below, and will shut down the others tomorrow, to give us all a fresh start.)

[Fred Nerks]

The IPCC made a prominent claim in its 2007 report, again citing the WWF as its authority, that climate change could endanger "up to 40 per cent" of the Amazon rainforest – as iconic to warmists as those Himalayan glaciers and polar bears. This WWF report, it turned out, was co-authored by Andy Rowell, an anti-smoking and food safety campaigner who has worked for WWF and Greenpeace, and contributed pieces to Britain's two most committed environmentalist newspapers. Rowell and his co-author claimed their findings were based on an article in Nature. But the focus of that piece, it emerges, was not global warming at all but the effects of logging.

Another lie exposed.

[Question Liberal Authority]

The claim in an IPCC report that 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforest could disappear through global warming turned out to be unfounded

Uh, yeah. Because if there's one thing plants HATE, it's warm temperatures coupled with increasing levels of carbon dioxide.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Now to include the Forum thread link:

Climate change: the final phase

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

It has been an active afternoon and evening here....Be sure and see the Gordon Brown article:

Climate sceptics denounced by Brown as he launches climate change group

And

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits:.. (no global warming since 1995)

And there is a second thread posted by Neverdem with links and comments longer than the one I just referenced....will check back in the morning.

I am getting the feeling that the dam has burst and only the Politicians and the US Media are still shouting..."It's getting Warmer"

I am pooped....

Searching on Google with Global Warming turns up much stuff...may be some that we have missed.

[Fred Nerks]

Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may not be a man-made phenomenon. And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ‘statistically significant’ warming.

STICK A FORK IN HIM, HE'S DONE!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

It’s beautiful...if so ,...we still have Hansen and Mann of Hockeystick Fame..oh and Pacheri...whatever...and Al Gore......then we go to work on the Politicians....

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I think this is significant...IPCC confesses:

Climate scientists admit fresh error over data on rising sea levels

[tcrlaf]

bookmark

[onyx]

I have to add Rush's words.

"Very seriously, ladies and gentlemen, this global warming hoax, this climate change stuff borders on criminal corruption, criminal political corruption. You think of all of the billions that have been spent ostensibly to protect things and people from global warming, and it's all been a scam, nothing more than a huge transfer of wealth. It is a giant scam. It is political corruption, what has happened. It's funny to listen to these people make fools of themselves and I love doing it, and it's not very hard. Just play their own words. I just got a note from a good friend: "Way to go, Rush, very smooth. You made 'em look foolish." I replied: "Easy. They are." But they're also dangerous. This is political criminal corruption, what is happening here, and just as they have ensnared the media to provide all kinds of propaganda for all the other political corruption that comes from liberalism, the Democrat Party, et al, they're doing it in global warming as well. Think of the money that need not have been spent on any of this. It's getting crazier and crazier." Rush Limbaugh 02-12-10 http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_021210/content/01125107.guest.html

"Very seriously, ladies and gentlemen, this global warming hoax, this climate change stuff borders on criminal corruption, criminal political corruption. You think of all of the billions that have been spent ostensibly to protect things and people from global warming, and it's all been a scam, nothing more than a huge transfer of wealth. It is a giant scam. It is political corruption, what has happened. It's funny to listen to these people make fools of themselves and I love doing it, and it's not very hard. Just play their own words. I just got a note from a good friend: "Way to go, Rush, very smooth. You made 'em look foolish." I replied: "Easy. They are." But they're also dangerous. This is political criminal corruption, what is happening here, and just as they have ensnared the media to provide all kinds of propaganda for all the other political corruption that comes from liberalism, the Democrat Party, et al, they're doing it in global warming as well. Think of the money that need not have been spent on any of this. It's getting crazier and crazier." Rush Limbaugh 02-12-10 http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_021210/content/01125107.guest.html

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

He is right!

[onyx]

I would have replied sooner, but this ping list...”Oynx”... is mispelled again...onyx. :)

Good night.

[steelyourfaith]

Thanx !

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[Marine_Uncle]

The bad science just keeps jumping out. Sad. But at least some good people have over the years stood steadfast and did not give up. Now their efforts are paying off. If governments cannot see the serious ramifications of just going along with those that have now admitted they don't know what they had been talking about, well that is another story.
Gotta hop in the tub and get ready for work. Have a good one.

[SteamShovel]

Rush said..."this global warming hoax, this climate change stuff borders on criminal corruption, criminal political corruption."

I'll go a step further and say as I have long said.....

.....It IS criminal corruption, collusion, and fraud.

These people should be tried, jailed,and stripped of their credentials for the flagrant attempt to derail world economies.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Whoops ,...I was working on a different machine and didn’t get the correction done there...you had pointed that out earlier...I also seem to transpose characters frequently!

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest.