[misterrob]

National elections are different animals though. It is one thing to vote against Congress and quite another to kick someone out of the WH. Face it, there are 40 plus % of the population that will vote D or R every time they vote.

On the whole, Palin might be popular with the automatic R voters but the 18-20% that are not loyal to the R party have concerns about her. I don’t think they can justify voting for BO though.

Will be interesting to watch

[DJ MacWoW]

I think Obama has scared too many for this to be accurate. Wonder what the internals were.

[OldDeckHand]

'National elections are different animals though. It is one thing to vote against Congress and quite another to kick someone out of the WH. Face it, there are 40 plus % of the population that will vote D or R every time they vote."

Presidential incumbents ALWAYS have an advantage. Since 1936, only two challengers have unseated incumbent Presidents who were standing for reelection - Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

Interestingly, both times there was a Independent candidate that did reasonably well; Ross Perot in 1992 who managed almost 20% of the popular vote and John Anderson in 1980 who garnered 6% of the popular vote. In each instance, those "successful" independent candidates were probably more reflective of the country's anger at the incumbent's party and their nominee.