Posted this on another thread & thought I’d share it here, if anyone is interested:
Here’s what I’ve heard over the last day or two (just hearsay, mind you):
Israel is evacuating all non-essential personnel form northern and eastern borders. A poster in Tel Aviv is fearful. There is some appearance of preparation for war by Hamas/Hezbollah, etc. We are bulking up our patriot missile presence and our naval presence in the region. I have a friend who just got deployed to the UAE; she was being told if war broke out in the region, we would be acting from there.
Back to us:
1) We, even with Obama at the helm, would be a backup for Israel. Therefore, Iran would have a motive for having us unable or unwilling to help Israel.
2) Just a few days ago, Iran launched a new Satellite into orbit called “Omid” which means “Hope,” (irony there, eh?). Omid is in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) not unlike that of a classic ICBM, ostensibly with simple biology experiments on board (worms, turtles, etc.).
Theories on Omid:
a) If the right kind of nuclear device is on board, a detonation a few hundred miles over the US could result in a serious EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) event. This would be severely disabling to the US technology infrastructure, taking down the power grid indefinitely, not to mention everything attached to it, as well as any insufficiently shielded independent electronics, including our own satellite fleet, if in line of sight to the detonation.
This would severely hobble any US aid to Israel, clearing the way for an all-out middle-eastern war with Israel at the disadvantage.
b) A more benign theory is that merely de-orbiting the satellite to a precise and symbolic target would send the West a “stunning” message, that Iran has fully entered the fraternity of nuclear powers and any sanctions against it will be useless.
3) Non-Omid theories
a) A new alignment between Iran and China will be announced, having roughly the same “stunning” effect of demonstrating the West’s permanent inability to hamper Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
b) Iran will openly conduct an underground nuclear detonation. Again, the real objective being to get the sanctions removed by created a sense of futility. However, some have determined that not long ago an earthquake in a remote location in Iran had a seismic signature that fits with a nuclear detonation, so I’m not sure what the point would be if that’s the case.
c) The anticipated protests of the Iranian people on February 11th will be met with such a complete, Tiananmen Square-like response that the West will never again interfere in Iran’s internal affairs.
d) Iran will assert control of the Straights of Hormuz, “punching” the West economically. This could be coordinated with a Chinese action to sell off US bonds, driving our economy into a profound chaos.
e) A freighter sits somewhere close to the US with a missile that can be launched straight up and detonated for it’s EMP effect. With only minutes to respond, it is uncertain we could defend ourselves. See EMP discussion above.
Supporting this is the report that over the last year, Iran has conducted a number of missile tests which exactly match this profile, i.e., straight up launches from boats to altitudes in the 200-300 mile range.
f) None of the above. Iran is playing psych-ops with the West; all the above scenarios are being tossed out there to get attention and distract from the internal turmoil of the country. Nothing significant will happen.
g) Some or all of the above.
What do I think? The war prep in Israel is real. Omid is real, but uncertainty keeps us from knowing whether they mean us harm by it or not. In theory, in their theological context it works best if we are drawn offside and make the first move. Personally, I think this is a hard count designed to do just that.
But in the end, I just don’t know. Not at my pay grade.
My theory is a union with Iraq or part of Iraq, thus making our last 7 years a waste of time and money. That would be a punch. Anything nuclear would be more than a “punch”. I don’t think it is in China’s best interest to align with a theocratic dictatorship either. They have terrorism problems of their own.
Thanks for posting this—husband and friends have been passing around a book (of course I can’t remember the name)and reading about what happens with an EMP strike. I hadn’t heard or if I did, I didn’t understand about their satellite launch and the Omid-’Hope’ is really weird. Anyway, printed off your thoughts to show husband/friends. Thanks again!
FASCINATING posting by freeper Springfield Reformer
>>>> "Israel is evacuating all non-essential personnel form northern and eastern borders. A poster in Tel Aviv is fearful. There is some appearance of preparation for war by Hamas/Hezbollah, etc.
We are bulking up our patriot missile presence and our naval presence in the region. I have a friend who just got deployed to the UAE; she was being told if war broke out in the region, we would be acting from there." <<<<
A long, long posting enumerating possible scenarios for February 11th.
An EMP attack would do a lot more than just cripple us from defending Israel. If you’re right it might be time to make run to the grocery store...
They could throw a missile at Canada.
Would show long range capability
Canada would never fight back
USA could do nothing since it was not attacked
The entire west would know it was within range.
Europe would capitulate.
All in one punch.
Many apologies, but I got the name of the Iranian spacecraft wrong. Omid was last year’s model, launched at nearly the same time, hence the mix-up. This year’s device is called Kavoshgar-3. I don’t know what the name means. Sorry for the confusion.
bump
I'm not sleeping tonight!
Do you have a link to that report?
That one slipped by me. Do you have a URL -- or, better yet, Lat-Long coordinates -- or, even a date for that?
I have NO idea how credible this site is (I never heard of it before; this article was linked from another blog) but this article - http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=3345 - called “A devastating war between Israel & Hezbollah is on the horizon” contains the following quote that supports the first item on your list, SR.
“In a report written by Hamid Ghoriafi, Middle East analyst and journalist, that was published today by the Kuwaiti Daily Al-Seyassah, Ghoriafi drew a very dim picture for the whole situation and predicted a very devastating imminent war that will be according to the Israelis the last one with on their northern borders. Below are some excerpts from this report:
“*Reliable European intelligence reports in London unveiled on Monday an extensive secretive Israeli ongoing operation to evacuate hundreds of families living in the Galilee settlements adjacent to the border with Lebanon to safer locations inside Israel, especially west Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and surrounding areas. These families are transported by trucks and buses and priority is given to families with many children, the elderly and the physically disabled. The evacuees’ houses are put under the control of the Northern Military Command for reasons not yet known. “
Mind you, the report quoted is by an Arab analyst and published in a Kuwaiti newspaper so who knows how accurate it is, but I found it interesting in that it seems to corroborate your mention of evacuation of non-essential personnel from the north and east.
Excellent synopsis! I believe it could be any of these possibilities. They msy also be bluffing. But I was aware of both our naval deployments and Patriot battery deployments, and of Israel’s movements and evacuations. Simply put, if Iran DOES have a nuke, they CANNOT be allowed to keep it. And Israel isn’t the only one that knows that. Even if Obama was clueless, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey India and a host of other countries (even FRANCE!) realize the ramifications. Our military movements indicate SOMEONE understands.
Whether it’s now, or 3 months from now, or even next year, sooner or later we will have to deal with Iran. Those nutjobs like Ahmadenijad think they have to bring the Mahdi back! At some point soon they’ll try to do just that — I’d prefer to stop them before Tel Aviv, or Jaffa, or Haifa — or London, Paris or New York — are ashes, or before we are EMP’ed back to the dark ages (which is where they are most at home!).
Posted this on another thread & thought I’d share it here, if anyone is interested:
Here’s what I’ve heard over the last day or two (just hearsay, mind you):
Israel is evacuating all non-essential personnel form northern and eastern borders. A poster in Tel Aviv is fearful. There is some appearance of preparation for war by Hamas/Hezbollah, etc. We are bulking up our patriot missile presence and our naval presence in the region. I have a friend who just got deployed to the UAE; she was being told if war broke out in the region, we would be acting from there.
Back to us:
1) We, even with Obama at the helm, would be a backup for Israel. Therefore, Iran would have a motive for having us unable or unwilling to help Israel.
2) Just a few days ago, Iran launched a new Satellite into orbit called “Omid” which means “Hope,” (irony there, eh?). Omid is in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) not unlike that of a classic ICBM, ostensibly with simple biology experiments on board (worms, turtles, etc.).
Theories on Omid:
a) If the right kind of nuclear device is on board, a detonation a few hundred miles over the US could result in a serious EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) event. This would be severely disabling to the US technology infrastructure, taking down the power grid indefinitely, not to mention everything attached to it, as well as any insufficiently shielded independent electronics, including our own satellite fleet, if in line of sight to the detonation.
This would severely hobble any US aid to Israel, clearing the way for an all-out middle-eastern war with Israel at the disadvantage.
b) A more benign theory is that merely de-orbiting the satellite to a precise and symbolic target would send the West a “stunning” message, that Iran has fully entered the fraternity of nuclear powers and any sanctions against it will be useless.
3) Non-Omid theories
a) A new alignment between Iran and China will be announced, having roughly the same “stunning” effect of demonstrating the West’s permanent inability to hamper Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
b) Iran will openly conduct an underground nuclear detonation. Again, the real objective being to get the sanctions removed by created a sense of futility. However, some have determined that not long ago an earthquake in a remote location in Iran had a seismic signature that fits with a nuclear detonation, so I’m not sure what the point would be if that’s the case.
c) The anticipated protests of the Iranian people on February 11th will be met with such a complete, Tiananmen Square-like response that the West will never again interfere in Iran’s internal affairs.
d) Iran will assert control of the Straights of Hormuz, “punching” the West economically. This could be coordinated with a Chinese action to sell off US bonds, driving our economy into a profound chaos.
e) A freighter sits somewhere close to the US with a missile that can be launched straight up and detonated for it’s EMP effect. With only minutes to respond, it is uncertain we could defend ourselves. See EMP discussion above.
Supporting this is the report that over the last year, Iran has conducted a number of missile tests which exactly match this profile, i.e., straight up launches from boats to altitudes in the 200-300 mile range.
f) None of the above. Iran is playing psych-ops with the West; all the above scenarios are being tossed out there to get attention and distract from the internal turmoil of the country. Nothing significant will happen.
g) Some or all of the above.
What do I think? The war prep in Israel is real. Omid is real, but uncertainty keeps us from knowing whether they mean us harm by it or not. In theory, in their theological context it works best if we are drawn offside and make the first move. Personally, I think this is a hard count designed to do just that.
But in the end, I just don’t know. Not at my pay grade.