Posted on 02/09/2010 1:18:06 PM PST by pissant
HA!!
I live in the East and aside from what is predicted for tomorrow we’ve gotten off light. Global warming is still BS though.
That said, it would be great to have a prolonged short term cool cycle, say 10-30 years, just to end this AGW nonsense.
But the AGW Worshipers are trying to claim it was a very strong El Nino year and that is why we have so much snow in the east coast. They live in a fantasy world. It was not a very strong El Nino. Only was strong for a few weeks. No where near the 1998 El Nino in strength. More similar to the 2003 El Nino. Now it is dropping like a rock. And El Nino does not explain the snow storm that will dump snow deep down south later this week. And it does not explain the deep freeze that devastated Florida in Early January.
On the other hand, sunspot activity has been abnormally low and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has turned cool, so we are probably in for a cool decade or more, but not every winter will be this snowy for the East.
Actually we just had a couple of days of moderate sun activity. This is the first time in 6 years we have had that. Looks like it will drop back down below moderate in a few days though. At any rate we have been cooling for 6 years and have a long way to go before we start warming back to normal even if the sun gets to strong activity. The past few winters prove that, but the AGW Worshippers are running around measuring temperatures not biased for air density or humidity and they are clueless living in a fantasy world.
I find no problem with longer growing seasons and thus more food. Nor do I have an issue with a warmer clmate so we don’t have to use more fuel for heating. But that’s just me.
I sure agree with you there. They fell into two classic fallacies. Because of their worldview (that mankind are industrial civilization are destroying the earth) they did their "science" backward from a conclusion and they fell into the correlation equals causation fallacy with CO2 emissions. Once they had fallen into that trap, they began to massage and bend the data to fit the pattern they "know" must be there.
That said and setting the whole AGW issue aside, a friend of mine, a meteorologist, says the recent change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will lead to about a 30 year cool period.
I'm with you! Warmer temps? Just means we do a little more of this.
My nude beach days are loooooooooooooooong gone!
LOL! Me too!
Was more then hilarious when NOAA announced the new Climate Change (aka Global Warming) agency. They actually stated in there announcement that snow melts are occurring earlier in the spring. They live in a fantasy world of their own creation.
That said and setting the whole AGW issue aside, a friend of mine, a meteorologist, says the recent change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will lead to about a 30 year cool period.
Probably true and it was the extended solar minimum (6 years) that played a part in the shift. This years moderate El Nino caused snow levels to be slightly higher then they would have been without the El Nino, but that is all it did. El Nino does not equate to net warming. It is just indicative of energy transfer pathways. That moderately warmed surface water would have still been warmed if the normal trade winds (non El Nino) were blowing. In normal circumstances however that sunlight warmed water gets cooled by the trade winds. Heat energy gets transferred from the water to the air either way. Either through forced wind evaporation or warm water evaporation. There is some difference between atmosphere and ocean heat fluxes, but no overall combined (Atmosphere + Ocean) net change. So the main controlling factor was the lack of trade winds due to lack of pressure differentials. No trade winds also allows some of the tropical moisture to be peeled off up into the temperate zones. At any rate, without the moderate El Nino it would have been very very cold this winter if you measured temps without bias to density. If you measured total heat content, no difference with or without the El Nino. We are slightly warmer but wetter. No net difference in total heat content or lack there of. Basic physics at play here. Nothing complicated.
Good shot, Jimbo!
AccuWeather.com is now projecting with our latest Blizzard Forecast that Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Wilmington (DE), Baltimore, Atlantic City and others will break their records for snowiest season in recorded history, after tomorrow's storm. Here are the stats (in inches, current/record/expected after tomorrow):*
Philly: 56.4 / 65.5 / 71.0
Atlantic City: 42.8 / 46.9 / 53.7
Wilmington: 53.9 / 55.9 / 67.3
Washington D.C.: 63.1 / 61.9 / 72.3
Baltimore: 60.4 / 62.5 / 74.6
Right now we're in a cold snap. Hey, even in an El Nino winter it's still winter!
So, to your point, when the South and East get whacked during an El Nino, there is more moderate weather in the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.
Definitely a change in wind patterns and precipitation distribution with an El Nino, but it is all pressure driven (aka - wind driven). I think the changes in wind patterns causes the El Nino to appear (unless its a undersea volcanic driven El Nino). We will see some of these major Mid-Atlantic cities with over 100 inches of snow this season. Historic type stuff. However, we did not get those levels even during the strong El Nino of 1998. So what we have at play is a combination of factors. Major cooling with moderate El Nino moisture and wind patterns. And as you have pointed out El Nino is fading fast which means the wind patterns (pressure differentials) are changing once again. Looks like eventually everyone might get a bad winter. Could last longer then mid-March. I was predicting a nasty winter, but it looks like so far it has been wetter (overall) and slightly warmer (overall) then I was predicting. Thought El Nino would fade earlier. The total heat content however is about right. The extra moisture from El Nino kept the non-density biased temps slightly elevated.
The Spring snows here tend to be heavy and wet and melt away relatively fast, unlike December snows that can hang around a while. Having grown up in tornado alley, I've come to enjoy the virtues of snow over tornado warnings. :-))
Not a professional meteorologist. Just play one at home, so take everything with a grain of salt, if you can still find one. Might run out by the end of winter. We have our deepest snow pack in decades here in Southern California. Snow predicted tonight for the 2,500 foot elevations. All it takes is just one of those monster blizzards, and bang you are there. Watch that storm hitting the deep south later this week. The computer models have it tracking really far south. Looks like snow at least in the Florida panhandle again. New Orleans and Houston possible. Heck, there was another brief snow fall on I10 in south west Texas last night.
I’ve never posted before. Would you be willing to place a vanity post up today for Jim DeMint’s money bomb for Rubio? Today is the day. Thanks!
When I'm not caught in it myself, I confess to some amusement when warm weather folks try coping with snow.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.