Yellowstone might go on first stage alert soon.

USGS ^ | 2/10/2010 | Myself

[Steve Van Doorn]

Since January 17, 2010 Yellowstone has had the second largest swarm ever recorded. The swarms have been steady at about 10 miles in depth and they have subsided a few days ago.

In the past two days the depth has raised up to around 7 miles and in the past couple hours quakes vastly increased.

http://www.quake.utah.edu/helicorder/ymr_webi.htm
http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/111-44.html

Remember this doesn’t mean we will see an eruption and it most likely means a normal volcano. It is very unlikely we will see a caldera eruption.
But these changes are significant and cannot be over looked

Some history:
Since the most recent giant caldera-forming eruption, 640,000 years ago, approximately 80 relatively nonexplosive eruptions have occurred. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. Some of the eruptions were approximately the size of the devastating 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, and several were much larger. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone, a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau, occurred 70,000 years ago.

[winoneforthegipper]

Came across this tonight. Evidently this was penned in late January of this year. He is late in his forecast however, weird to know that there is some providence to what we think.

http://jersey.uoregon.edu/~mstrick/RogueComCollege/RCC_Lectures/Cascadia.html

“Dr. Buford P. Foonis, eminent professor of Geology, has predicted that an earthquake will occur along the central portion of the Cascadia Subduction Zone within the next 7 to 10 days. Dr. Foonis indicates that the quake will occur in the vicinity of Gold Beach, Oregon, with a magnitude of 8.8 to 9.2 on the Richter scale. Since this easily qualifies as a major event, widespread damage can be anticipated. Local agencies are meeting in Grants Pass to determine what, if anything, can and/or should be done to protect the citizens and property of our area”.

[Mom MD]

Thanks for the info. BTW did you look at the Univ of Utah seismographs at the time of the Chile quake? They went nuts and stayed so for over an hour (look at the YMR site) Things had settled down there lately, it will be interesting to see if they heat up again.

When I was in Yellowstone years ago, one of the guides described a time in the park when there was a reasonably strong earthquake nearby. He said almost every geyser in the park erupted simultaneously. What a sight that would have been!

[winoneforthegipper]

Yes, in fact it was those recorders showing such a large response that made me click FR to find out where it was.

I could only imagine the effects of such at Yellowstone.

You are one step ahead of me though, I have never been there but this spring will hopefully correct that...lol!

[numberonepal]

...I saw during a SyFi disaster movie...

Have you noticed that in all those disaster movies the heroes all work for FEMA?

[creeping death]

I know and I wonder if they’d really be that quick to help people - especially in certain parts of the country that don’t support the current crop of cronies in charge...

[winoneforthegipper]

Okay, things are ramping up in northern California. What appears to be to be microsiesmic activity. I believe this is in response to the almost continuous S/waves coming out of Chile.

Something to monitor closely.

These two webicorders seem to be set on a certain frequency that enables them to only locate a specific motion? However their recordings is not background.

http://quake.usgs.gov/waveforms/helicorder/LAS_SHZ_NC_—_00_20100228.html

http://quake.usgs.gov/waveforms/helicorder/LBC_SHZ_NC_—_00_20100228.html

this webicroder seems to be set to a more standard frequency.

http://quake.usgs.gov/waveforms/helicorder/LCSB_SHZ_NC_—_00_20100228.html

This is far enough to the north to be in the area that is of concern.

[Steve Van Doorn]

these are very good observations. I agree there is going to be more movement in the West cost of California and up.
Just a reminder movement doesn't always mean a large EQ.

[winoneforthegipper]

Agree, in fact not to many years ago, geologists insisted that the cascadia subduction zone could not produce earthquakes.

[spectre]

We are about 150 miles away from Yellowstone.

Here ya go..

"Another catastrophic (Yellowstone) eruption is also possible. The effects of such a disaster are hard to even comprehend."

"Bill McGuire, professor of geohazards at the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at the University College of London told the UK Daily Express, "Magma would be flung 50 kilometers into the atmosphere. Within a thousand kilometers virtually all life would be killed by falling ash, lava flows and the sheer explosive force of the eruption. One thousand cubic kilometers of lava would pour out of the volcano, enough to coat the whole USA with a layer 5 inches thick." He adds that it would once again bring "the bitter cold of Volcanic Winter to Planet Earth. Mankind may become extinct."

So basically, the ash will cover and clog up everything. Say Amen.

sw

[stormer]

This is from an exercise for a Rouge Community College class on planning - it isn’t real. You do people a diservice when you spread this kind of thing.

From the piece:

“Put some quality time into this. The possibility of this happening is real... only the timing is uncertain. You may want to contact your agency and get their response. Many of them may have already planned for this scenario and will be able to help you with your planning. If they haven’t, maybe you can help them. Good luck, and let’s come up with a viable plan for all our sakes.”

[winoneforthegipper]

Yeah I actually googled the guy turns out he was a student.

I was getting more info on it though.

Thanks for your concern.

[winoneforthegipper]

I trust though stormer you sent emails out to the publications that did pick up the story?

I mean since you want to do a service and all?

[stormer]

Publications? You're talking about some loser blogs that have a handful of readers. Do you know anything about geological hazards other than what you've made up after reading some web pages?

[winoneforthegipper]

Dude really you have to tone it down a bit.

As for the online publications you can start with these. Please do I am sure there are many more than are listed on google that needs to be corrected.

Thanks!

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&source=hp&q=Cascadia+Quake+Zone+Gets+Wired+Up&btnG=Google+Search&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&fp=baa94940edcea411

[stormer]

Buford P. Foonis turns up in exactly 3 links. If you want to play scientist, do it privately. Otherwise, leave the analysis to those who know WTF they are talking about.

[winoneforthegipper]

Through those links is where this bogus email originated.

If you were a scientist, your investigative skills would have been keenly aware of that by now.

As for me playing a scientist, nope, we are just a few people interested in the way geophysics play out.

Since you seem to have a leg up on us as far as knowledge, I for one would love your input at times, if not, then you can leave us here fine.

We make no bones we are novices at best.

Thanks.

[BCR #226]

Stormer, he may not be a professional but he’s doing a service by gathering ALL data he can. Your reaction is very beligerant and uncalled for.

I am by no means an authority on the subject of Yellowstone but I’ve studied the Caldera there for many years. We should all err on the side of caution and examine all data carefully to gain as much insight as possible. Of course we will find false and misleading data... that’s par for the course on the net. We need to sift through it, confirm what is real and what is not so we have well informed discussion.

Remember, most discoveries have been made by amateurs. We may very well stumble across something critically important that could give those who know WTF they are talking about insight that they might miss.

I humbly request that you apologize and understand that he is sharing what he can out of concern for the well being of our fellow man. I for one appreciate all the information I can get on this matter.

[stormer]

I am a scientist and I knew after I read the first sentence it was from an exercise. My point is that you have to be careful with stuff like that. Somebody’s going to copy that to an email and the next thing you know, everybody and their dog is shitting themselves - especially after Haiti and Chile.

[stormer]

First of all, I'm not talking about the caldera info - I find that interesting and useful. Nobody is quite sure about what's going on there and the more information, the better. My concern is when things like this Buford Foonis exercise start getting passed around - a lot of people will not recognize it for what it is and and start spreading false information. When nothing happens it only makes the job of risk assessment and emergency managers harder when the threat is real.

[winoneforthegipper]

Actually I do fault myself for not posting that I was checking into the authenticity of it but alas I decided to wait until I did more research.

Pseudo posts to the Internet do happen by scientists, so I was just waiting till I had more time to research it.

Yes, I agree and I am in my circle of life the one that usually debunks emails of this nature, so again my bad.

What field is you call to duty?