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Scenario 1: Nuclear Detonation – 10-kiloton Improvised Nuclear Device
publicintelligence.net ^ | 8.9.2009 | Depatment of Homeland Security

Posted on 02/02/2010 3:03:33 AM PST by B-Chan

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"The Federal interagency community has developed fifteen all-hazards planning scenarios (the National Planning Scenarios or Scenarios) for use in national, Federal, State, and local homeland security preparedness activities. The Scenarios are planning tools and are representative of the range of potential terrorist attacks and natural disasters and the related impacts that face our nation. The objective was to develop a minimum number of credible scenarios in order to establish the range of response requirements to facilitate preparedness planning. Since these Scenarios were compiled to be the minimum number necessary to develop the range of response capabilities and resources, other hazards were inevitably omitted. Examples of other potentially high-impact events include nuclear power plant incidents1, industrial and transportation accidents, and frequently occurring natural disasters. Entities at all levels of government can use the National Planning Scenarios as a reference to help them identify the potential scope, magnitude, and complexity of potential major events. Entities are not precluded from developing their own scenarios to supplement the National Planning Scenarios. These Scenarios reflect a rigorous analytical effort by Federal homeland security experts, with reviews by State and local homeland security representatives. However, it is recognized that refinement and revision over time will be necessary to ensure the Scenarios remain accurate, represent the evolving all-hazards threat picture, and embody the capabilities necessary to respond to domestic incidents.

How to Use the National Planning Scenarios:

Capabilities-Based Planning

In seeking to prepare the Nation for terrorist attacks, major disasters and other emergencies, it is impossible to maintain the highest level of preparedness for all possibilities all of the time. Given limited resources, managing the risk posed by major events is imperative. In an atmosphere of changing and evolving threat, it is vital to build flexible capabilities that will enable the Nation, as a whole, to prevent, respond to and recover from a range of major events. To address this challenge, DHS employs a capabilities-based planning process which is a planning process that occurs under uncertainty in order to identify capabilities suitable for a wide range of challenges and circumstances, while working within an economic framework that necessitates prioritization and choice. As a first step in the capabilities-based planning process, the Scenarios, while not exhaustive, provide an illustration of the potential threats for which we must be prepared. The Scenarios were designed to be broadly applicable; they generally do not specify a geographic location, and the impacts are meant to be scalable for a variety of population and geographic considerations.

HSPD-8 Implementation

The Scenarios will be used in the implementation of HSPD-8, “National Preparedness,” including the development of the National Preparedness Goal and the National Exercise Program. In helping to develop the National Preparedness Goal, the Scenarios provide the foundation for identifying the capabilities across all mission areas and the target levels of those capabilities needed for effective prevention, response and recovery to major events, such as those outlined in the Scenarios. Examination of the Scenarios leads to certain common functions that must be accomplished. The need for response organizations to move quickly and in a coordinated manner and the requirements to quickly treat mass casualties and to assist displaced residents are examples. This commonality implies flexible, adaptive, and robust capabilities to cope with diverse events and hazards. In addition, the Scenarios will be used as the design basis for exercises in the National Exercise Program. As a common foundation for exercise development, the Scenarios reduce the possisbility that agencies exercising the same basic type of event will exercise greatly different consequences which may lead to vastly different capability requirements and preparedness expectations. While not meant to be all-inclusive, the scenarios provide a basic set of common homeland security events and their related impacts that can be employed at the national level or by States and localities. Although certain areas have special concerns – for example, continuity of Government in Washington, DC; viability of financial markets in New York; and trade and commerce in other major cities – the Scenarios have been developed in a way that allows them to be adapted to local conditions. Agencies will not be limited to this set of Scenarios, and they will continue to be able to exercise scenarios that are not specifically included in the planning set. However, when exercising the basic events included in the Scenario set, the Scenarios provide a mutual starting point.

Mission Areas:

The following Mission Areas were used to assist in scoping the response requirements generated by the scenarios.

Prevention/Deterrence – The ability to detect, prevent, preempt, and deter terrorist attacks and other man-made emergencies

Infrastructure Protection – The ability to protect critical infrastructure from all threats and hazards

Preparedness – The ability to plan, organize, equip, train, and exercise homeland security personnel to perform their assigned missions to nationally accepted standards – this mission area includes public education and awareness

Emergency Assessment/Diagnosis – The ability to achieve and maintain a common operating picture, including the abilitiy to detect an incident, determine its impact, determine its likely evolution and course, classify the incident, and make government notifications

Emergency Management/Response – The ability to direct, control, and coordinate a response; manage resources; and provide emergency public information – this outcome includes direction and control through the Incident Command System (ICS), Multiagency Coordination Systems, and Public Information Systems

Hazard Mitigation – The ability to control, collect, and contain a hazard, lesson its effects, and conduct environmental monitoring – mitigation efforts may be implemented before, during, or after an incident Evacuation/Shelter – The ability to provide initial warnings to the population at large and at risk; notify people to shelter-in-place or evacuate; provide evacuation and shelter support; and manage traffic flow and ingress and egress to and from the affected area

Victim Care – The ability to treat victims at the scene; transport patients; treat patients at a medical treatment facility; track patients handle, track, and secure human remains; provide tracking and security of patients’ possessions and evidence; and manage the worried well

Investigation/Apprehension – The ability to investigate the cause and source of the incident and identify, apprehend, and prosecute those responsible for terrorist attacks and other manmade emergencies

Recovery/Remediation – The ability to restore essential services, businesses, and commerce; cleanup the environment and render the affected area safe; compensate victims; provide long-term mental health and other services to victims and the public; and restore a sense of well-being in the community

1 posted on 02/02/2010 3:03:35 AM PST by B-Chan
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To: All
NB: Hiroshima attack yield ≈ 12 KT
2 posted on 02/02/2010 3:05:21 AM PST by B-Chan (Catholic. Monarchist. Texan. Any questions?)
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To: B-Chan

if you are looking for a silver lining to this doomsday scenario... consider the reaction by the people of America when 3,000 were killed by enemy action on 9-11.

if this were to happen, nothing short of a miracle would stop the US from conquering the middle east, after killing all in the area.

after that... there would be little terrorism tolerated in the world. yes, we tolerate it now. if we didn’t, we would be constantly sending 2-5 man teams to take out all leaders of potentially threatening UA groups... like iran, cuba, venezuela, etc.

they don’t know how bad we can get. it’s only because we realize this, that we hold ourselves back for their sakes. those kids gloves would be lost if a city were lit.


3 posted on 02/02/2010 3:13:25 AM PST by sten
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To: B-Chan

That’s what the globalist elite would want...

...a nuked NYC.


4 posted on 02/02/2010 3:16:43 AM PST by myknowledge (F-22 Raptor: World's Largest Distributor of Sukhoi parts!)
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To: B-Chan

Response from Obama after the Attack: We have to ask ourselves what provoked an attack from a religion of peace? Let me be perfectly clear, we have to learn to listen to others. This was America’s fault just as much as the alleged attackers. I have directed Attorney General Eric Holder to find, arrest, indict and prosecute the alleged attackers to the fullest extent of the law.


5 posted on 02/02/2010 3:22:33 AM PST by hflynn (The One is really the Number Two)
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To: sten

I don’t buy that. I think a lot of the displaced would be looking for welfare, and the entire area would be irradiated for a decade or more. If the target was D.C., government would collapse. You would find that the current administration is wholly incapable of handling the situation at home nor the situation overseas. These UA groups would likely setup multiple incidents to “overwhelm the system.”

Obama would stand up there (if he survives) saying that we need to be “calm.” He would demand answers from foreign countries, but we all know that Obama is incapable of following through on demands.

I’m sorry, if this scenario happens under the current administration, this country would crumble. Individual pockets of armed resistance would be prevalent, but an organized army from a country like Russia would decimate our national infrastructure.


6 posted on 02/02/2010 3:23:17 AM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: sten
"nothing short of a miracle would stop the US from conquering the middle east, after killing all in the area."

That miracle is President Obama...

7 posted on 02/02/2010 3:23:27 AM PST by Dacus943
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To: B-Chan

This in the context of terrorists being unable to handle any weapon more sophisticated than a boxcutter.


8 posted on 02/02/2010 3:30:44 AM PST by ctdonath2 (Pelosi is practically President; the Obama is just her talk show host.)
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To: rarestia
If the target was D.C., government would collapse. You would find that the current administration is wholly incapable of handling the situation at home nor the situation overseas.

I think the elitists snobs in this administration are wholly incapable of buttering their own toast. Anybody expecting them to lead and rally a defense of our nation will be terribly disappointed.

9 posted on 02/02/2010 3:37:43 AM PST by Never on my watch (Liberalism has NEVER made anything better)
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To: B-Chan

And anyone not directly affected, but living in interstate evacuation corridors should prepare themselves for a “post katrina” situation x 100.


10 posted on 02/02/2010 3:39:23 AM PST by two23
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To: rarestia

on 9-12, i was worried about the next attack from a UA group (AQ). they had been escalating and improving their attacks since the early 90s... and it was only the offense of the Bush administration that kept them from hitting the next level. now that the pressure is off... the next level is inevitable.

multiple, simultaneous, coordinated attacks ... that was 9-11. the next level would be something like what was stated above

on a side note, i have been hearing about retired war generals stockpiling/burying food, guns, ammo, general supplies... which always makes my ears pick up.


11 posted on 02/02/2010 3:42:35 AM PST by sten
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To: Dacus943

of course, that is assuming ‘the miracle’ survives the attack.

if not, we might end up with a random roll for leader. if i were really conspiracy minded, i’d track where the first 4 in succession are... and if they suddenly left town, just before the event, that’d be mighty suspicious


12 posted on 02/02/2010 3:43:06 AM PST by sten
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To: rarestia
"but an organized army from a country like Russia would decimate our national infrastructure."

I don't think the Russians would be in any hurry to fight armed Americans on our soil. it was the greatest fear the Soviets had of an all out struggle with the U.S.

The Chinese, under the guise of protecting their investment, might intervene.

The greatest fear of this administration is what happens if OBAMA Declares Martial Law and suspends Civil Liberties, Habeas Corpus, Elections, etc?

Their greatest fear is an uprising against the tyrannical government with the real warriors(the ones who enlisted to defend this country, not get handouts) from the Military on the side of the armed struggle. This leaves OBAMA as Commander in Chief with no Professional Military. Then he will have to open the prisons in this country and arm them to the teeth to keep his hold on the urban centers of the Country.

13 posted on 02/02/2010 3:45:29 AM PST by wmileo
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To: sten
You know he is planning to survive such an attack.

He probably has spent a couple of billion TARP$ building teleprompter-equipped bunker-mosques all around the country

14 posted on 02/02/2010 3:50:42 AM PST by Never on my watch (Liberalism has NEVER made anything better)
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To: B-Chan
This was pretty-much the scenario of "Sum of All Fears" by Clancy - too bad they PC'd the heck out of the movie.
Although in the book the weapon didn't fully detonate.
We know this is one of their hopes and dreams - to nuke the U.S., and now they have an ally in the White House.
Be prepared.
15 posted on 02/02/2010 3:56:45 AM PST by Psalm 73 ("Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - this is the War Room".)
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To: two23
Idiots, Suffering Lasts but A Moment

I S L A M Eternal Suffering Lasts Forever!

16 posted on 02/02/2010 3:58:46 AM PST by STD ( Dear Leader, No Thank You, We Don't Want to Share in Your Political Success)
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To: sten
"....have been hearing about retired war generals stockpiling/burying food, guns, ammo, general supplies..."

If you are not - you should be.
It doesn't have to be perfect, it just needs to be adequate.
Start small and add a little more (food, water, ammo) each week or month.
Don't need to bury it, just don't keep it on your front porch.

17 posted on 02/02/2010 4:04:06 AM PST by Psalm 73 ("Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - this is the War Room".)
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To: B-Chan

later


18 posted on 02/02/2010 4:07:10 AM PST by Tahoe3002
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To: B-Chan

The fed/guv wants this to happen. They’ll hep em trigger it, if necessary.


19 posted on 02/02/2010 4:14:33 AM PST by Waco (Wanna buy an FBI file,,,See Hillary, she's got 900 of them.)
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To: rarestia
Actually, I think that the individual state governments (those that survive) would take over.

Given the severity of the attack,martial law would be in place.

It would be interesting to see what changes would take place in California.

20 posted on 02/02/2010 4:17:44 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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