It appears that the poll that showed him within 3 points was one that just described the two candidates by attributes, without mentioning political party, and asked people which they’d prefer.
I’d love to think Moran was vulnerable, but he was gerrymandered into an unwinnable district in order to get more republicans elected, and I’m not sure catching him with a live boy in his bed would make a difference — having him beat up a live boy on the street didn’t.
Moran also smacked his wife around.
I don’t think that the poll’s subjects were kept in the dark about the candidates’ respective political affiliations, merely that, in addition to the typical name and party disclosure, they were also given a brief description of the candidates’ background.
Here are some caveats about the poll from Redstate contributor Moe Lane:
VA-08: 44/41 Moran/Berry (Caveats).
[UPDATE] Welcome, Campaign Spot readers.
Said caveats are: Internal poll, D+16 district, and Moran’s still ahead by three. But a 44/41 Moran/Berry split at this stage is still noteworthy: add five points to Moran’s total and he still polls under 50% – which means that he’s vulnerable. I don’t mind seeing a 40/38 split on ‘try somebody new’/’keep Moran,’ either.
Post-Massachusetts, it’s no longer reasonable to assume that anybody on the Democratic side is too safe to be defeated: so keep an eye on this race. I’ve mentioned Matthew Berry before: if I was in his district I’d probably be supporting him in the primary right now, not least because he’s been engaging the new social media (which is a pretentious way of saying ‘he’s actively working to get support’). And I can’t [expletive deleted] stand Jim [expletive deleted] Moran. Watching that particular corrupt, anti-Semitic suckweasel go down in flames on Election Night would be a better present than a pony, and I’ve always wanted a pony.
Moe Lane
http://moelane.com/2010/02/01/va-08-4441-moranberry-caveats/