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Ahh... that "could" word again.
It seem to have a different meaniing when used in an IPCC/AWG report....:^)
Two important pieces of scientific evidence are emerging which should revolutionise the forest fire debate and move it from being seen as a peripheral environmental, social and economic issue into a central issue of concern for the international community.
Firstly, there is mounting evidence that forest fires will increase in number and size due to a link between climate change and the climate phenomenon called El Niño, which caused the drought that affected much of the forests which caught fire in 1997 and 98. The frequency and intensity of El Niño could be increasing1, which means the world faces warmer more violent weather, and more forest fires.
Second, while some experts believe that it is too early to say when the next El Niño will occur, others say it might be within eighteen months, it will likely be before the forests that burnt last time have had a chance to recover. New evidence from the Amazon has concluded that fire causes a positive feedback cycle in which the more tropical forests burn the more susceptible to future burning they become. This raises the possibility of large wildfire episodes happening more frequently and on such a scale that tropical forest ecosystems will not endure. The scientists believe the whole Amazon itself is threatened, which has global consequences for biodiversity and climate change2
1 K. E. Trenberth & T. J. Hoar, The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record, Geophysical Research Letters, 1996, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp57-60; K. E. Trenberth, and T. J. Hoar. El Niño and Climate Change, Geophysics Research Letters, 1997, Vol. 24, no.23, pp.3057-3060
2 D. C. Nepstad, A. G. Moreira, & A. A. A l e n c a r, Flames in the Rain Forest: Origins, Impacts and Alternatives to Amazonian Fire, Pilot Program to Conserve the Brazilian Rain Forest. Ministry of Environment, Secretariat for the Co-ordination of the Amazon, 1999
Let's look up these two references. I already know that Trenberth is implicated in the climategate email scandal.
ROTFLMAO!!!!
#2 WAS WRITTEN BY WOODS HOLE RESEARCH CENTER!!!!
John Holdren...Obama’s Science Advisor used to run this group.
http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/pub/pub_8.htm