Pelosi Has 218 Votes Only Through February

IBD's Capital Hill ^ | 1/25/2010 | David Hogberg

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Beginning March 1, Speaker Nancy Pelosi may fall below the 218 votes she needs to pass health care reform.

The House health bill got 220 votes. But Rep. Robert Wexler, D-Fla., has retired. Joseph Cao, R-La., the lone Republican voting “yes”, says he won’t support the final package.

And on Feb. 28, Rep. Neal Abercrombie, D-Hawaii, retires to focus on running for governor. That brings Pelosi to 217, assuming there are no other changes.

The soonest Pelosi would be back up to 218 would be April 14, one day after the special election to fill Wexler’s seat.

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With Dem leaders reportedly uniting around a quick health care push, the question of how many votes Pelosi is very relevant.

[goldstategop]

The question is whether the Blue Dogs are willing to walk the plank for Queen Pelosi after Massachusetts.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[JLS]

Keep in mind that she does not need 218 votes. She just needs a majority of the number voting as long as the number voting constitutes a quorum.

[Aria]

At this point the majority of rats must be shaking in their boots...question is...who do they fear more - us or Pelosi and zero?

[advance_copy]

She does not have 218 votes for the Senate bill because it allows tax dollars to pay for abortions indirectly. The Stupak Amendment was passed in order to get 40 pro-life Dems to vote yes. Without it, she’s gonna need a lot more the Wexler seat.

[SirJohnBarleycorn]

I predict that either we won’t hear much about health care in the SOTU, or that Obama will pretend he plans to slow down on Obamacare.

In reality, the Rats will be working furiously behind the scenes to twist arms, make payoffs and make whatever bribes and threats they need to squeak the senate bill through the house on a razor-thin party line vote, with an immediate second bill passing the house and senate by “reconciliation” to reflect the results of negotiations between Reid and Pelosi.

The Rats need for the media and the public to focus on other things while they work behind the scenes, because the American people don’t want Obamacare and the more people learn about the substance of the bill, the more they don’t like it.

If the Rats can pull it off, it will happen very quickly and under the radar until shortly before the vote.

[kabar]

The numbers are deceiving. Pelosi has some no votes that she can convert to yes votes. When she has the needed votes in hand, she can allow some Dems to vote no to placate their constituents. I still believe she can strong arm the needed votes.

[Tawiskaro]

[Anti-Kenyan]

LOL holy hell, wexler is retiring? That guy is nuttier than a squirrel turd.

[buwaya]

Why are you improving her looks ?

[fortheDeclaration]

Those votes were for the House Bill with the anti-abortion amendement in it.

The Senate version won't come close to passing.

[JohnBovenmyer]

Yup, HealthCare passed 220-215. Flipping Cao back to No, emptying Wexler and Abercrombie seats make it 217-216, thus still passing if everyone else voted the same. The question is, “Can Pelosi flip more ‘no’ Dems than fear of the public flips ‘yes’ Dems?” If she falls even one short than Abercrombie leaving blocks her until Wexler is replaced. I doubt ‘chad central’ would go red to further block her, but then who saw Brown coming. She can probably find someone to counter Stupak, but the more of his group he can hold the harder her task.

[Plutarch]

There have got to be some vulnerable Dems who want to save their hides by voting against it. The best the Dems can (implausibly) offer is a Prisoner’s Dilemma of all having fewer losses if they stay together. The Dem who breaks from this will save themselves at their colleagues expense. It’s got to be very very tense, as enforcing a Prisoner’s Dilemma requires serious coercion.