If Geithner Goes, The Top Two Contenders - CNBC, 2010 January 20, by Lee Brodie
The latest storm of controversy stems from Geithner’s role involving AIG payments to banks when he headed the New York Federal Reserve. Specifically, lawmakers want to hear about his decision to pay banks in full to retire $62.1 billion in credit default swaps sold by AIG, and whether Geither disclosed information about those payments properly. At a hearing on AIG in November, one lawmaker had called on Geithner to step down. If Geithner were to be replaced, "it would have to be someone outside Wall Street," explains Daniel Clifton of Strategas Research Partners. “The argument is that Geithner is too Wall Street.” And although nobody is tossing their hat in the ring officially, Clifton tells the desk that insiders are whispering about a short list; and the names being floated are Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and former NJ Governor Jon Corzine. However, Geithner probably isn't going anywhere -- at least not yet. Absent a "smoking gun" most analysts agree that the results of the inquiry won’t trigger a resignation. ..... Tim Geithner will soon find himself on the hot seat again, as he’s summoned to Congress. Considering the mood in DC, could his job be on the line?
If Geithner is forced out, it would not be because of AIG issue or pressure from Congress (though Dems on the Hill could be used by Obama to do the deed, while he is publicly wringing and washing his hands) - it would be because he is regularly a big thorn in the side of another Obama's close advisor, FDIC's Sheila Bair, and because he had the temerity to publicly question and express his disagreement with some of Obama's programs, regulations or trial balloons:
Geithner on the outs with Obama - NYP, 2010 January 24, by Mark DeCambre
As President Obama turns up the heat on Wall Street, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner appears to have a diminished role in shaping policies pertaining to the financial sector amid talk that he has reservations about the tack that the White House is taking to try to rein in firms. Signs that Geithner might be on the outside looking in were visible Thursday, as the Treasury secretary stood two people away from Obama while the president outlined the broad strokes of a plan that could effectively separate commercial banking from investment banking and curb consolidation in the financial-services industry. Customarily, Geithner has been at Obama's side whenever the president discussed topics related to Wall Street. .....
Call him "Tiny" Tim.
That's what used to be known as Kremlinology, in the "good old days" of Cold War, when all were looking at the order of Comrades standing left and right from the Soviet leader.
The latest Kremlinology signs doesn't look good for Tim, but this is Obama's call and he'll make it for internal reasons, not because of supposed pressure from Congress.
Re Biden's family ties with Stanford's and other funds - it's probably one of the reasons why Beau Biden would not run for his father's Senate seat. Another may be this poll by a prominent and rabid Dem pollster:
Health Care BS - LEFTY POLL ANALYST PREDICTS SEVEN-SEAT SENATE LOSS FOR DEMS :
In terms of individual Senate seats, Silver’s model suggests that seven Democrat seats will go Republican. Here are the statistical probabilities produced by his algorithm for those seats. The percentage to the right of each state is the statistical probability that one of its seats will flip to Republican hands: North Dakota———-99% Arkansas—————–73% Nevada——————–73% Pennylvania ———–72% Colorado——————70% Deleware—————–66% Illinois——————–51% This is, of course, highly speculative stuff. But Silver has a pretty decent track record for accuracy, and he most assuredly is not biased in favor of the GOP. Considering the stubborn refusal of the Democrats to face the grim political realities highlighted by the Massachusetts Senate election, things could turn out even worse than he predicts. Nate Silver, a poll analyst much beloved of the Left, has some bad news for the Democrats. His latest statistical model suggests that, when the smoke clears after November’s midterms, the Democrat Senate majority will be down to 52 seats. Here’s his chart showing the statistical probability of various electoral outcomes: [chart]
Above chart might also explain while Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas) is having a sudden conference on Tuesday.
