[Mike Darancette]

From:
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010

"STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS WARM EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST (THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKEN) INTO AT LEAST EARLY BOREAL SPRING 2010, AND IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE US SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS INTO THE APR-MAY-JUN (AMJ) 2010 SEASON. THE IMPACT OF EL NINO ON THE CLIMATE OVER NORTH AMERICA IS USUALLY GREATEST DURING THE LATE WINTER SEASON. MANY PREDICTION TOOLS INDICATE THAT THE EL NINO IS CURRENTLY NEAR ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THOUGH SOME MODELS PREDICT THAT THIS WARM EPISODE MAY EXTEND INTO SUMMER, IMPACTS ON THE US TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR LATE SPRING AND BEYOND, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE."

Here in Rancho Cucamonga (So Cal) it must have rained 10" started out warm but got cold later. And, yes the warmists will blow this all out of proportion .

[justa-hairyape]

That statement is flat out wrong. All equatorial Pacific high temperature anomalies are below 2.6 C positive and most are below 2 C positive. It is moderate. In fact there is a bigger positive temp anomaly in the South Central Pacific. If El Nino is strong, what does that make the South Central Pacific ? The storms are being driven by the strong Jet Stream. Would occur with or without El Nino conditions. The storms are coming from the Central North Pacific which is cold. That is why we had snow in spots at 1,200 feet here along the Rancho Cucamonga foothills last night. Saw it personally. And it was very cold here last night. Don't ever recall being able to see my breath during the last El Nino about 10 years ago.