More like the feds will proclaim that Montana loses. Whether or not they actually do depends on the people and State officials of Montana. If the State of Montana is willing to actually defend the rights of the people they will tell the feds "NO, WE REALLY MEAN IT" and any agents sent to enforce their federal proclamation will be jailed.
I would like to see a large state like Texas or, better yet, many states simultaneously, give an ultimatum to the feds: keep out of our affairs or we will arrest your agents. If you attempt to stop us in any way, we will withhold all income and excise taxes paid by any person or entity within our jurisdiction, and we will mobilize our state militias."
That would grab national and international attention, and would force the fed.gov to back down. What are they going to do, invade Texas (or many states) where there are tens of millions of guns? That won't happen.
The tragedy is that neither will such an ultimatum - though I'd support it. I swore an oath to defend and protect the Constitution against all enemies, foreign AND domestic - and a fed.gov intent on collecting a large measure of the powers that, under the Constitution, belong to the states and the people is a "domestic enemy" by my definition. Oh, what I wouldn't give for one governor with a real spine.
Im with you Ancesthntr, read theses bills being proposes by Georgia, Oklahoma and Washington State. They do just that!
We need our States passing Federal escrow Tax bills like this one now being looked at in Georgia: http://www.legis.ga.gov/legis/2009_10/versions/hb877_LC_18_8555T_pf_2.htm
or this one being looked at by the Oklahoma state Legislator:
http://webserver1.lsb.state.ok.us/2009-10bills/HB/HB2810_int.rtf
Or this one in Washington State:
http://apps.leg.wa.gov/documents/billdocs/2009-10/Pdf/Bills/House%20Bills/2712.pdf
I would call your legislator and ask them to pass something similar.