[[SS is a pay as you go system. The 2041 or 2037 dates are when the last IOUs from the SS Trust Fund are cashed in using money from the General Fund. The system is unsustainable unless you raise taxes or cut benefits or both. ]]
This isn’t true- the system is not unsustainable as it is- it’s unsustainable becuase congress is spending it when they hsouldn’t be touching it at all- that’s how the banks got in trouble- spending money (on the premise of ‘making money’) that wasn’t their’s to spend- they lost money, and the people putting their money in the banks were the victims
[[But by 2016, SS goes permanently into the red, i.e., it will be paying out more than it is taking in.]]
Your predictions are based on CURRENT economic climate- not on average economic climates which fluctuate (soemtimes wildly- bust and boom)
[[We have a structural problem of having fewer workers for every retiree (2 to one in 2030 compared to 3.3 now and 16 in 1950) and the fact that SS COLA increases are not linked to revenue. The system is on automatic pilot.]]
‘2030’? Based on who’s calculations? Again- timing- We’re currently in a MASSIVE unemployement period- peoplel osing jobs all over the place in them illions- is that prediction based on CURRENT unemployment? Or the averages over he years? I suspect it’s based on current unemployement, because as stated- the fear-monguering “SS is goign bankrupt by year... (fill in the blank)” claims keep changing year to year
You don't seem to understand how the system works. Congress could have borrowed the money from the public [including foreign investors] or from the SS "surplus." In the arcane world of federal budgeting, Congress did not take any money from SS. They provided the SSTF with interest bearing T-bills in return for the "surplus" SS money. Here is how the SSTF is administered and its rationale.
The dirty little secret is that SS is really a form of income tax and a stealth way to hide the true nature of our deficits. It is a funding mechanism. The idea that the SS surplus shouldn't be touched is nonsense. Should it be placed under a matress? The surplus is invested in interest bearing T-bills.
Your predictions are based on CURRENT economic climate- not on average economic climates which fluctuate (soemtimes wildly- bust and boom)
It t may flucuate by a few years one way or another, but very little. The 2016/2017 dates have been around for some time. The figures are based primarily on demographic and actuarial data. Just like insurance policies can be based on flucuating data, SS is pretty easy to predict. It does not vary widely.
2030’? Based on who’s calculations? Again- timing- We’re currently in a MASSIVE unemployement period- peoplel osing jobs all over the place in them illions- is that prediction based on CURRENT unemployment? Or the averages over he years? I suspect it’s based on current unemployement, because as stated- the fear-monguering “SS is goign bankrupt by year... (fill in the blank)” claims keep changing year to year.
Why don't you read the trustees report and see how the data are calculated. It is pretty cut and dried with three basic scenarios. We could get hit by a meteor or an earthquake could swollow California. Any projection cannot account for all circumstances or possibilities, just the mostly likely ones. We can only plan based on what we know or what is likely to happen. SS revises its estimates yearly. They have not varied widely.
"Because the future is inherently uncertain, three alternative sets of economic, demographic, and programmatic assumptions are used to show a range of possibilities. The intermediate assumptions (alternative II) reflect the Trustees' best estimate of future experience. The low-cost alternative I is more optimistic for trust fund financing, and the high-cost alternative III is more pessimistic; they show trust fund projections for more and less favorable conditions for trust fund financing than the best estimate. The assumptions are reexamined each year in light of recent experience and new information about future trends, and are revised as warranted. In general, greater confidence can be placed in the assumptions and estimates for earlier projection years than for later years. The statistics and analysis presented in this Summary are based on the intermediate assumptions.