Intrade numbers on the Coakly vs Brown race

Intrade.com ^ | 01/18/2010 | Intrade

[truthandlife]

Remember, always follow the money trail....

[bayliving]

Oops.

Here is the link...

Up to the minute Intrade numbers

[Three if by government]

I agree but remember the election in ny 23 they had the democrat down to 10% the night before Acorn tampered with the machines.

[jpl]

I wonder what InTrade traders’ historical record for accuracy on these things is.

[goldstategop]

63% chance of winning. Slightly down from this morning. I think it looks very good going into tomorrow. No market volatility here.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[Plutarch]

Continuously updated Intrade graph tracking percentage likelihood of Brown victory. The time is GMT (EST +5).

[Brugmansian]

Up to 66% now. Highest I’ve seen.

[bayliving]

I wonder what InTrade traders’ historical record for accuracy on these things is.

I had that same thought as I was posting this.

Anybody here know?

[aft_lizard]

I know everybody is goo-ga over Intrade but since intrade changes very often I think it is a waste of bandwidth to continuously be updated with new threads.

[goldstategop]

When you bet with money, you're making a prediction that will pay off. And its more reliable than polling because people can lie to a pollster but they usually know how they trade or spend their money. Intrade got the 2008 and 2009 elections right. Doesn't mean they have a perfect record but the markets are for the most part, predictable.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[Loyal Buckeye]

63% chance of winning.

Not sure the meaning of this or how the percentage was derived. Any thoughts?

[bayliving]

I know everybody is goo-ga over Intrade but since intrade changes very often I think it is a waste of bandwidth to continuously be updated with new threads.

You are correct and I apologize. I should have checked to see how many times this has been posted first.

I just saw a bunch of people freak out about old poll numbers and thought I would try to calm their nerves.

[traderrob6]

Some clueless jerk posted a week old Rasmussen poll in breaking news and got everyone in a tizzy.

The most recent polls are as follows:

PJM/CrossTarget (R) Brown 52, Coakley 42

PPP (D) Brown 51, Coakley 46

InsideMedford/MRG Brown 51, Coakley 41

ARG Brown 48, Coakley 45

[ohiobuckeye1997]

For those interested, Rasmussen was just on Fox and said nothing of Coakley being up as the deleted post a little earlier did.

[mikelets456]

I’d feel better if Brown were up 15 points as SEIU and Acorn will pull out all of the stops to make sure they secure their agenda!!

Pray earnestly that the “enemy” will be confused...

[MrDem]

PEOPLE PLEASE! Intrade is the DUMB MONEY that is just following the poll info. It does not have any “secret” bookie insider info.

[library user]

You must not be in the know then.

[behzinlea]

These numbers are driven by people who are looking at the same polls and listening to the same pundit chatter that we are. If even one poll comes out today purporting to show a swing in momentum toward Coakley, and the MSM applies its standard pro-Coakley uber-spin to it, Intrade will rapidly shift back toward Coakley.

I'm going to ignore the Intrade hype and just pray that the so-called Independents crawl across broken glass to vote for Brown.

[behzinlea]

Anybody here know?

Intrade is usually dead-on about 20 minutes after the first exit poll results come out.

But seriously, it would be interesting to review and compare the Intrade dynamics of the final 36-48 hours leading up to conclusion of the Owens--Hoffman race in NY-23.