Posted on 01/17/2010 11:30:02 AM PST by libh8er
A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) and InsideMedford.com indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 50.8% – 41.2% in the contest to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Liberty Party candidate Joe Kennedy pulls in just 1.8% support, while 6.2% of voters are still not sure. Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate. In contrast, 22% of Kennedy’s supporters are just leaning toward him, suggesting that Brown and Coakley may both want to take aim at swaying those voters.
Not surprisingly, nearly all of Coakley’s supporters approve of President Obama’s job performance, while three-quarters of Brown’s supporters disapprove. Coakley may see a glimmer of hope in the fact that more than two-thirds of undecided voters approve of the president’s job performance while only 6% disapprove, especially in light of the president’s swing through the state to campaign for her later today.
47% of Brown’s supporters say that taxes, jobs, and the economy represent the most important issue to them in this race, while half of Coakley’s supporters say that healthcare reform is most important to them. Undecided voters are nearly evenly split between the two issues—40% say they’re most concerned with taxes, jobs, and the economy with 37% saying that healthcare reform that most concerns them. “For Coakley to have a chance, she needs to convince voters that the Democratic party’s agenda for the economy is the right one, and she needs to do it fast,” said MRG’s executive director, Matt Fitch.
The recent dust-up between the candidates over abortion laws seems to have had minimal impact on the race. Only 8% of Brown’s supporters and 5% of Coakley’s supporters say it’s the most important issue to them.
The endorsement in Medford on January 7 of Martha Coakley by members of Senator Ted Kennedy’s family appears to have had little effect on most voters and to have backfired with others. 55% said that it was not important to them, but 27% said it made them less likely to vote for Coakley, while only 18% said it made them more likely to vote for her. As for undecided voters, more than two-thirds said the endorsement was not important. “The Kennedy family endorsement seems to have hurt more than it helped Coakley, despite the popularity of the Kennedys in the state and in Medford,” said Allison Goldsberry, Editor of InsideMedford.com.
What seems to tip the race in Brown’s favor most is his popularity among Moderates, Independents, and men, and Coakley’s lack of an advantage among women. Brown nearly doubles Coakley’s total among Moderates, 62% – 32%, and has an even bigger margin among Independents, 64% – 26%. There’s also a one-way gender effect that favors Brown, who holds a nearly two-to-one lead over Coakley among men while women are split evenly between the two candidates. Brown does best among white voters, while Coakley leads among non-whites, suggesting that minority turnout may play a crucial role on election day. Brown is also leading among all age groups.
Methodology
MRG surveyed 565 likely voters between 5:00 P.M. and 8:45 P.M. on January 15, 2010 using touch-tone polling technology. The margin of error is +/– 4.1%. Some columns do not sum to 100% due to rounding.
* Click here to view the poll questions, results, and demos
Merriman River Group, founded in 1998, is a full service consulting organization specializing in election management, opinion research and communication. In 2008 and 2009, MRG provided nationally representative telephone survey data for the for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for Public Leadership’s annual National Leadership Index: A National Study of Confidence in Leadership.
InsideMedford.com is Medford’s first and only exclusively online news source. It was founded in 2007 by Allison Goldsberry, a former newspaper reporter and T.V. journalist.
For interviews, please contact Allison Goldsberry at (781) 526-1997.
I’ve been making calls for Brown since Monday. My unofficial tally has Brown winning by an overwhelming majority if it is accurate.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
Brown needs to beat the Obamunist sock puppet 9% to prevent the left from stealing it.
“A landslide.... and Intrade says its a dead heat.”
I just saw that. The thugs and crooks have arrived on the scene.
Praise the Lord for this.
We are praying for Scott Brown over at:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/2430467/posts
Come on over if you would like to join us.
Great, that’s almost outside the ‘margin of ACORN’
The unions are rousing their army of orcs for a final charge. The war hasn’t been won yet.
Keep up the heat like Brown is 5pts down!
Calls..donate...get your friends to the polls!
Now is the time the scumbags usually pull out their filthiest lies.
Be prepared. Desperation does not even describe where they are now.
I don’t agree. We heard the same hype about Corzine and we all know how that worked out.
I believe those market sites are a 'lagging indicator'. They just blow with the wind and follow poll numbers for the most part. I think they are near worthless when it comes to predicting what is going to happen.
Baker, who I think still practices law in Texas, was the brains behind the legal strategy in the aftermath of the Florida recount grab by Dems.
Books written after Fla said that Baker’s smart court moves and motions outmaneuvered Gore badly. Baker overwhelmed the Gore legal team.
Baker rammed it up to the USSC. GWB was finally declared the winner when the USSC saw that the Dems were up to their old count-and-recount-till-you-win-tricks.
The USSC directed Fla to “Stop the Count.”
I agree because Intra Trade has it at 49.9 Coakley, 50.0 Brown. This is going to go down to the finish.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
And in the sign fight here in MA, it's Brown in a landslide. I can't wait to fire up my victory stogie.
It will come down to which side’s people are more motivated to show up to vote. Or, on the Dem side, to vote and vote and vote....
I donated to Brown yesterday (within my modest means).
Well, you know that intrade is not a poll. Brown was under 10 less than 2 weeks ago.
The hatred for Coakley among DemocRATS is palpable.
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