Posted on 01/16/2010 8:32:04 AM PST by blam
Cheap Crude Oil Is Gone, And That's Good News
Commodities / Crude Oil
Jan 15, 2010 - 04:21 PM
By: Casey Research
Marin Katusa writes: Over the next year or two, you will likely find yourself paying a LOT more at the gas pump. Big changes are taking place in the oil industry. With increased global demand and declining supply, easy oil is not so easy anymore.
Everything is about to get more expensive. From gasoline to anti-freeze, life jackets to golf balls, and eye glasses to fertilizer. There are very few things in the modern world that aren't made from oil, made by machines dependant on oil, or shipped by vehicles powered by oil.
The implications, at first glance, appear to be the opposite of good news. In fact, it's enough to strike panic in the hearts and wallets of the average consumer. And that's exactly why the International Energy Agency just released its annual World Energy Outlook, clearly rejecting the possibility that crude output is now in terminal decline. Their attitude seems to be, what you don't know won't hurt you. For now that is.
The truth however, is beginning to surface, and from an investor's perspective, the truth can mean money in the bank. Right now, the IEA's claim that oil production will be ramped up from its current level of 85 million barrels per day to 105 million barrel per day by 2030 is receiving harsh criticism.
The Guardian reports, "The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit."
This comes from a whistleblower inside the International Energy Agency who states the fear of triggering panic buying has caused them to intentionally underplay the inevitable shortage.
[snip]
(Monday may be a good day to buy the fertlizer for your depression garden, ahem)
I have no doubt the MSM would declare it awesome great news should O devalue the dollar. Throwing tens of millions into poverty.
idiots.
He predictions on terminal decline are 180deg out from everything I have been reading in the last few years.
Drill here! Drill now!
All the while, America’s oil is not accessable to the American people. It’s like having a car and they pass a law that you says you can’t drive it.
Increased demand? Pffft! Thanks to a dollar worth ####!. Courtesy of your loving, Marxist government.
Oh yes that would be great news if it were true. We could magically make everything from free electricity. It comes from the wind and the sun and all
Perhaps it is spot on but I’ll take anything said by a group whose name starts with “International” with an iceberg-sized grain of salt, thankyouverymuch.
I thought we did too...in 20 feet of water in the Gulf off the Louisiana coast. A big field, I thought.(?)
Another entirely unrelated point is that there is lots of natural gas. Natural gas can be used for feed stock for many petroleum products. In addition, CH4 can be used for heating and transportation, When ruled by an “educated class” which has no technical background many problems seem to be insurmountable.
May God have mercy on us and our descendent's!
Seems like the more oil runs out, the more they find. Between the recent finds in Louisiana and North Dakota, there ought to be enough oil to get the US through this century and beyond. Add to that shale oil and Canada’s tar sands, and we have a few more centuries of clear sailing. With the right people in Washington, we might find ANWR has a hundred times what has been estimated. All that is needed now to keep oil production up and prices down, is less intrusive government and an end to lying, liberal science.
Still an importer but they are close to being an exporter, but then again if they have any economic growth they won’t be exporting crude.
Will prices go up? Sure. When have they not, in the long run. But we are nowhere near running out.
This is marketing hype for someone's stock picks. If oil prospectors were free to explore all promising sites in the US, and develop shale technology, (and more oil is being discovered all over the world including the Middle East), the world could reach and exceed the needed production levels for quite a few decades into the future.
(And there is that crazy idea going around that the earth is actually producing more crude oil on an ongoing basis, that the supply is not fixed, but being replenished.) Needs more study.
They have been playing the peak oil game since the 1920s. But they are constantly being surpised because we reall—just don’t know as much as the speculators assume. The Big East Texas Field, for instance, was NOT thought to be possible. Furthermore, we don’t know for sure how petroleum is formed. Whether there is a fixed amount from the deposit of organisms or whether it is formed from minerals. As far as the development of probable resources, ie “known” fields such as those in Alaska, the Big Companies may think of these as reserves they are waiting to tap when the moment is ripe—for them.
There is zero empirical evidence for the claim that we are running out of oil.
The prediction has been made for at least 50 years and it never happens.
Oil companies and environmentalists are colluding to create the fiction that oil is scarce.
The artificial scarcity in the US created by banning fossil fuel production increases pollution globally.
“The prediction has been made for at least 50 years and it never happens.”
For as long as I can remember, we’ve been “30 years away” from running out of oil. And I remember first hearing that claim pretty close to 30 years ago.
We have a LOT of oil but the government won’t lwt us go get it! (130 years worth of oil with NO imports and without touching our coal reserves or natural gas reserves)
http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002981.html
Shell says they can extract it for $30 a barrell, make that $50 using in situ, just to be safe.
“...Some estimates for the amount of oil in shale range as high as 1 trillion to 1.8 trillion barrels. Assume that 1 trillion barrels could be extracted. The United States currently uses about 20.5 million barrels per day which is about a quarter of current world oil demand. World oil demand is projected to rise to 119 million barrels per day by 2025 or about a 50% increase. Suppose we take that 119 million barrel figure and round it off to 120 million barrels. Also let us assume that oil shale could yield 1 trillion barrels of oil. That oil shale would satisfy total world oil demand by this equation: 1,000,000 million barrels/(365 days per year times 120 million barrels per day) which equals only 22 years at the projected year 2025 consumption rate. Even oil shale can delay the end of the oil era by a couple of decades. Still, we could use those decades to develop technologies to lower the cost of nuclear and photovoltaic solar power...”
1,000,000,000,000 barrels / 21,000,000 barrels per day x 365 days yealds about 130 years worth of oil with NO imports and without touching our coal reserves or natural gas reserves.
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