From the article: “Roughly a quarter of those surveyed have not yet made up their minds, and Brown matches Coakley - both were at 47 percent - among the roughly 1 in 4 respondents who said they were “extremely interested’’ in the race.”
Some of the results reported simply do not seem internally consistent. And other results, including what I quote immediately above, surely indicate that the Dems’ support is as soft in MA as it is nationwide. Even the article concedes that turnout will be low — no higher than 35% compared to 50% in a general election.
The pollster comes across as supremely confident that Coakley has an insurmountable lead. Even taken at face value, the evidence simply does NOT point to that. Ergo, the pollster has been misrepresented by the article’s author or is a hack. Anyone worth his salt would be hedging his bets a lot more than this guy has done.
I am not at all dissuaded from my own bullish sense, now weeks-old, that Brown has a real shot at taking this election. Perhaps not 50-50. But likely not all that much worse.
From an online survey from last nite Boston globe. (boston.com)
They are making the 15 point lie up so it goes national to discourage donaters.
Republican state Senator Scott Brown will face off against Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Jan. 19 special election to fill the late Edward M. Kennedy’s US Senate seat. If the election were held today, whom would you vote for?
Scott Brown
54.1%
Martha Coakley
45.9%
Total votes: 8782
Boston.com’s surveys are not scientifically valid. They reflect the opinions of only those who vote. More