Jan 6 poll announced 4 days later?
Poll might be good, but very small sample size and how has the track record been of University of New Hampshire Survey Center, doing polls in Mass? Why go to NH, no polling places in MA?
I’m not saying I disagree with poll. The newer poll showing a dead heat may have caught some last minute movement especially from folks who only started to make up their minds after the holidays. Also, the newer poll seemed to be attentive to expected turnout while this NH pollster may have kept the same turnout figures as presidential election.
Another selection from article:
And there are other glimmers of hope for the Republican: Roughly a quarter of those surveyed have not yet made up their minds, and Brown matches Coakley - both were at 47 percent - among the roughly 1 in 4 respondents who said they were “extremely interested’’ in the race.
Alas, we know the bias of the average poli sci prof/university. One thing I note is the UNH poll says it is of ‘likely’ voters, yet it includes those who simply say they ‘may’ vote, only excludes who outright say they won’t.
On the other hand, the PPP poll doesn’t say that it rotates the order of names, instead always listing Brown first, and it doesn’t identify the independent candidate by name at all.
I’d almost say each poll is reaching for its relative result.
More on this poll shows that “likely voters” was self selected. They simply asked. Gallup article says that is not enough:
The simplest example of such a “likely voter” question is the most straightforward: “Are you going to vote on Election Day?” A pollster could simply accept the respondents at their own word, and include in the final likely voter sample those who say yes, and eliminate those who say no. The major problem with this procedure is the natural inclination of the majority of registered voters who are interviewed before an election to say that they are going to vote — without giving it much thought. In fact, Gallup research indicates that, on a routine basis, about 90% of registered voters will tell an interviewer that they are very likely to vote on Election Day.
But, variants on the idea of asking individuals questions in order to determine their probability of falling into the sample of likely Election Day voters can be quite effective. Over the years, Gallup has developed a series of questions that provide a good prediction of the probability that an individual will end up voting. These questions include asking whether or not the individual knows the location of his or her voting place, whether or not the individual voted in the past election, how closely the person is following the election, and so forth.
Based on more than 65 years of experience predicting “likely voters,” Gallup’s analysts have developed computer programs which give each person interviewed a score based on how they answer these questions. Those with the highest score have the highest probability of voting. These people have voted in the past, know where to vote, and have a high degree of interest in the election. Those with low scores have a low probability of voting. Despite what they say they are going to do, they don’t know where to vote, they hadn’t voted in the past, and they have a lower level of interest in the election. Thus, the computer program judges them to have a lower probability of actually voting.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/4636/how-define-likely-voters.aspx