http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/thoughts-on-massachusetts.html
Monday, January 4, 2010
Thoughts on Massachusetts
There’s all sorts of speculation and back of the envelope math being done right now on the Massachusetts Senate special election and whether Republican Scott Brown might be able to pull off a surprise there.
Dave Weigel reports that Rasmussen is going to be polling there tonight so that should give us a better idea but I thought it would be worth taking a look at what would happen if things played out in Masschusetts similarly to Virginia, which is a sort of Democratic worst case scenario. .......
Our MA freepers, friends, family...inlaws and outlaws, have to turn out EN MASSE, regardless of weather.
You’ve heard of Too Big To Fail?
They need to make this one Too Big to Steal.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-were-seeing-in-massachusetts.html
Friday, January 8, 2010
What we're seeing in Massachusetts
Because of the heavy interest we'll try to get our Massachusetts numbers out over the weekend. But because we've already conducted most of the interviews for it here are some of the major storylines we're seeing:
-At this point a plurality of those planning to turn out oppose the health care bill. The massive enthusiasm gap we saw in Virginia is playing itself out in Massachusetts as well. Republican voters are fired up and they're going to turn out. Martha Coakley needs to have a coherent message up on the air over the last ten days that her election is critical to health care passing and Ted Kennedy's legacy- right now Democrats in the state are not feeling a sense of urgency.
-Scott Brown's favorables are up around 60%, a product of his having had the airwaves to himself for the last week. By comparison Bob McDonnell's were at 55% right before his election and Chris Christie's were only at 43%. Coakley's campaign or outside groups need to tie Brown's image to national Republicans and knock him down a notch over the final week of the campaign.
This has become a losable race for Democrats- but it could also be easily winnable if Coakley gets her act together for the last week of the campaign. Complacency is the Democrats' biggest enemy at this point and something that needs to be overcome to avoid a potential disaster.
Posted by Tom Jensen at 1:34 PM