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This is Great News! For Sarah Palin! (Really)
FiveThirtyEight Politics ^ | 1.07.2010 | Nate Silver

Posted on 01/08/2010 1:32:11 AM PST by militanttoby

I find this truly remarkable: in a National Journal survey of 109 Republican "party leaders, political professionals and pundits", not a single one deemed Sarah Palin to be the most likely Republican nominee.

I've written extensive commentary about how I think Palin's chances are in fact pretty decent. I'd probably call her the "favorite", although "favorite" in this context might mean having a 25-30 percent chance of winning. From my list of ten bullet points, this one stands out as the most important:

8. Attempts by the Republican Establishment to neuter her may backfire. This is a corollary of #6 ["She's tough to campaign against"] above. If the Establishment, owing to electability concerns or whatever else, tries to put hurdles in her way by re-structuring the primary or delegate allocation process, it may only play into the victimization complex of Palin and her supporters. 2010/12 is shaping up to be an anti-Establishment cycle. The Republican Establishment is not popular, to a large extent even within their own party, and certainly not among "conservatives" more broadly, only 55 percent of whom have a favorable image of the G.O.P.

Palin has some obvious flaws as a candidate. But she's the best equipped to bridge the divide between the Tea Party and the Republican Party. In some ways, indeed, the "message" that she unveiled in 2008: a mish-mash of populism, everywomanism, and paranoia -- coupled with a light touch on policy specifics -- has proven to be highly prescient in terms of everything that has come thereafter. And most of the other candidates have flaws that are at least as significant: Romney has his Mormonism, his flip-flops, and his MassCare; Huckabee has Maurice Clemmons and is despised by the establishment every bit as much as Palin, and Tim Pawlenty has become the dweeb trying to keep up with the Cool Kids -- we live in a branded world, and in a branded world, the inability to differentiate oneself is death. John Thune comes out looking pretty good, I guess, but he's also the least exposed so that could change.

But back to the point I made in November -- there's going to come a time, probably in July 2011 or so, where the knives are really drawn on Palin and Republican pundits, strategists and candidates start saying in public some of the things they've been thinking in private. And that in all likelihood will play very well for her. Although the Establishment's concerns about Palin's viability as a general election candidate are well grounded, mostly they're just terrified of her because she doesn't need them.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: badromney; jealousromney; palin; romney; romneycovets
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To: FreeReign; ansel12; stephenjohnbanker; jwparkerjr; rabscuttle385; mkjessup; AuntB
RE :”Notice the common theme, “I think she is happy with...no responsibilities” How somebody knows this,..

If the theme is ‘we think’ it, why do you claim we say ‘we know’ it? No one knows what she is up to. To 'think' means speculating. Now you got me started again.

The Palin-maniacs are dreaming she is the next Braveheart William Wallace to rise the masses into a conservative army to defeat the democrat army at the polls(from facebook) . But just like William: the RINOs, the establishment (like McCain??), the MSM, the democrats, all the evil forces are rising to stop her. They would only unite to oppose our true saviour, right?? It has to be.... it's a sign she is the ONE!

61 posted on 01/08/2010 9:01:08 AM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is spending you demand stupid")
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To: sickoflibs
If the theme is ‘we think’ it, why do you claim we say ‘we know’ it? No one knows what she is up to. To 'think' means speculating. Now you got me started again.

Webster: "think" - To believe it true.

Unbelievable.

The Palin-maniacs are dreaming she is the next Braveheart William Wallace to rise the masses into a conservative army to defeat the democrat army at the polls(from facebook) . But just like William: the RINOs, the establishment (like McCain??), the MSM, the democrats, all the evil forces are rising to stop her. They would only unite to oppose our true saviour, right?? It has to be.... it's a sign she is the ONE!

Do me a favor. Don't post this crappy non-sequitur to me. Such a response doesn't logically address anything that I said.

Thanks!

62 posted on 01/08/2010 9:10:38 AM PST by FreeReign
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To: sickoflibs

That sounded like a kid, it sure didn’t recognize what I posted to you.

“Governor Palin has been involved in politics for 18 years, her life story is a story of taking on responsibilities, and it earned her the position of the most popular governor in America, a vice presidential slot in 2008 and her current position as leader of the conservative movement. Politics of 2009 are largely different in tone and passion and level of conservative confidence and anticipated success because of Sarah Palin, not because of the republican party of the week before Palin came on the national scene.

Governor Palin’s history is one of running against odds, being a giant killer, and being a reformer, it is the opposite of how you tried to describe her, her personal drive has always been to take on responsibilities and to be a woman of action, that is why conservatives like her, she is a hands on politician that clearly fights for results.

In less than 18 months, Sarah Palin has dramatically changed the political landscape for conservatives in America.”


63 posted on 01/08/2010 9:11:18 AM PST by ansel12 (anti SoCon. Earl Warren's court 1953-1969, libertarian hero, anti social conservative loser.)
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To: sickoflibs

When Sarah PAC quits giving money to re elect RINO’s, and states that she is not for ANY form of amnesty, not just “Democrat” amnesty, is when I will take her seriously.


64 posted on 01/08/2010 9:18:08 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker (Support our troops, and vote out the RINO's!)
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To: stephenjohnbanker

And she disowns the Bush legacy!


65 posted on 01/08/2010 9:23:52 AM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is spending you demand stupid")
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To: sickoflibs

Not on paper she doesn’t ;-)


66 posted on 01/08/2010 9:26:56 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker (Support our troops, and vote out the RINO's!)
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To: ansel12; stephenjohnbanker; jwparkerjr; rabscuttle385; mkjessup; AuntB
RE :”In less than 18 months, Sarah Palin has dramatically changed the political landscape for conservatives in America.

No she didn't. Democrats did that by winning and McCain by losing.

If McCain won and Sarah was VP the conservatives as republicans would be even MORE demoralized than under Bush. Not saying she would be the cause, but there would have been complete disillusionment by Palin conservatives as 1) they cut deals and signed Pelosi bills , and 2) the McCain administration sunk to Bush approval lows in a few months much faster than Obama did being blamed for everything bad, again. There are many reasons this would have happened.

Now conservatives are united against democrats, in fact even RINOs are too. Not seeing where Palin made a difference this year at all. There was no Palin in 1993 and 1994 when RINOs got purged from party leadership. She is not calling the R party to task at all! She is just joining the "Obama is bad" theme. That is just swimming downstream. no guts, all glory! And it wont sell.

67 posted on 01/08/2010 9:57:15 AM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is spending you demand stupid")
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To: Frenchtown Dan

I know we sound like a bunch of old farts remembering our youth, and things that never were, but life WAS different then. And those who’ve never experienced it like it was then, have no idea what they’re missing. Oh, I know, life wasn’t good for everyone, and there were those for whom life was discrimination and riding in the back of the bus, etc., but to the extent that’s changed, we’ve paid a heck of price.


68 posted on 01/08/2010 10:16:33 AM PST by jwparkerjr
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To: jwparkerjr

We may be old, but we’re not Old Farts.
Old Farts don’t post in this website, give yourself some credit.

It was different then, but in a better way.

People had morals and patriotism and you didn’t have to be afraid of your job going overseas, it wasn’t even a concern. None of our presidents apologized to foreign countries for idiotic made-up reasons.

It was a better country then. Maybe some day those “Good Ole Days” will return. Maybe Palin or someone like her can turn this country around.


69 posted on 01/08/2010 10:33:42 AM PST by Frenchtown Dan
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To: sickoflibs

You can’t just change reality, conservatives had one thing going for them after Obama won in Nov, 2008 and that was Governor Palin, the media kept focused on her and she kept holding her own, which gave conservatism a presence during the Obama adulation and power grab, her spark kept us in the game and in a few months she started influencing even moderates like Rick Perry to become more emboldened, and even swaggering with remarks like “secession”.

Palin was firing up conservatives and helping to elect people like Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Instead of being broken and demoralized while the party and the media focused on Mitt Romney as the natural leader of the right, Palin kept us on the front pages and helped create an aggressive, confident, conservative, counterpoint to the normal narrative and roles, that the media and the Rockefeller/Romney GOP would have taken.

Regardless of your own goals and intents, there is a reason why conservatives support Governor Palin, and why she is the Key Note speaker at the National Tea Party Convention.


70 posted on 01/08/2010 10:41:15 AM PST by ansel12 (anti SoCon. Earl Warren's court 1953-1969, libertarian hero, anti social conservative loser.)
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To: ansel12

I am glad you are happy. Good luck.


71 posted on 01/08/2010 11:01:44 AM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is spending you demand stupid")
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To: sickoflibs

The Conservative movement,the Tea Party movement, and the Republican base, are all grateful for your kind words.


72 posted on 01/08/2010 11:06:12 AM PST by ansel12 (anti SoCon. Earl Warren's court 1953-1969, libertarian hero, anti social conservative loser.)
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To: ansel12

LOL


73 posted on 01/08/2010 11:12:40 AM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is spending you demand stupid")
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To: stephenjohnbanker; rabscuttle385; mkjessup; AuntB

Hey, per reply #70 and millions of others similar posted here, what if Sarah Palin (just a hypothetical), is really a big spending, open borders, compassionate, no child left behind, more benefits for seniors and single Mom’s : RINO (just a hypothetical). BUT at the same time she gets the republican ‘base’ all worked up and enthused. Is that all we need??? I mean who cares about the future? If it feels good now! What if she is changing things now.... you getting excited yet??


74 posted on 01/08/2010 11:20:20 AM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is spending you demand stupid")
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To: sickoflibs

Which part was funny?

Palin is the favorite of Conservatives, the Keynote Speaker for the Tea Party, and the favorite of the Republican base.


75 posted on 01/08/2010 11:36:27 AM PST by ansel12 (anti SoCon. Earl Warren's court 1953-1969, libertarian hero, anti social conservative loser.)
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To: ansel12

Favorite ???

Compared to who? McCain?


76 posted on 01/08/2010 11:39:37 AM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is spending you demand stupid")
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To: sickoflibs
Hey, per reply #70 and millions of others similar posted here

Palin does get a lot of support at freerepublic.

"Sarah Palin IS this Tea Partier's cup of Tea!!
12/02/2009 | Jim Robinson

Posted on Wednesday, December 02, 2009 12:02:15 PM by Jim Robinson
Being as how I'm a God, Country, Family, small government, traditional American values, Life & Liberty patriotic kind of guy, Sarah Palin IS my cup of tea. My cup runneth over!
I pray she runs."

77 posted on 01/08/2010 11:42:32 AM PST by ansel12 (anti SoCon. Earl Warren's court 1953-1969, libertarian hero, anti social conservative loser.)
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To: ansel12

Senator Graham and McCain love her too, her PAC is supporting their elections. Is she for Cap and Trade too?


78 posted on 01/08/2010 12:07:06 PM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is spending you demand stupid")
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To: militanttoby
In some ways, indeed, the "message" that she unveiled in 2008: a mish-mash of populism, everywomanism, and paranoia -- coupled with a light touch on policy specifics -- has proven to be highly prescient in terms of everything that has come thereafter.

Huh? Eh Tu Nate?
79 posted on 01/08/2010 12:23:12 PM PST by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the occupation media.)
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To: sickoflibs

What we do know is that she has been embraced and supported by the Conservative movement, the Tea Party movement, the GOP base, and freerepublic, but not by you, big deal.


80 posted on 01/08/2010 12:30:38 PM PST by ansel12 (anti SoCon. Earl Warren's court 1953-1969, libertarian hero, anti social conservative loser.)
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