Yes, I meant 2012. If Dalrymple doesn’t run in 2012 (á la Schweiker in PA), or loses in the primary, then the new ND governor would be in his second term in 2018.
If he does run for governor in 2012, then the ND governor in 2018 will be either a 70-year-old Dalrymple or a Republican in only his second year as governor, and we’d have to look to Congressman Cramer for a first-tier candidate.
Presuming there is a GOP Governor elected in 2016. The Dems could mount an effective argument that it will have been 28 years since they last elected a Dem in that office by that year, and party fatigue almost always sets in at some point.