I want to go on record now saying that Republicans pick up 7 Senate seats in November and retake the House.
I think there is a decent chance (perhaps 1 in 3) that Brown takes the seat in MA on the 19th. In that case, I predict a swing of 8 seats, which is close to the maximum possible.
7 would be awesome. Here’s my list of vulnerable Dems for 2010:
Harry Reid - Nevada
Michael Bennett - Colorado
Open Seat in Illinois
Open Seat in North Dakota
Kirsten Gillibrand - New York
Open Seat Connecticut
Arlen Specter - Pennsylvania
Open Seat Delaware
Evan Bayh - Indiana (I’ll go out on a limb and put Bayh in this column, he voted for the “stimulus” and the Senate version of health care reform)
Blanche Lincoln - Arkansas
Barbara Boxer - California (obviously she has to be favored to win again, but CA’s economy is so deep in the toilet that she cannot be considered a shoe in)